Digital asset manager Bitwise released its 2026 crypto market outlook on December 16, challenging one of the industry’s longest-held assumptions.
JUST IN: 4-YEAR CYCLE IS NOW DEAD AND WE ARE ABOUT TO GO PARABOLIC
– RAOUL PAL pic.twitter.com/io1ay2GNHv
— Joshua Jake (@itzjoshuajake) December 16, 2025
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that the traditional four-year crypto market cycle is no longer relevant, marking a major shift from past analytical frameworks.
Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) price movements have closely followed its four-year halving cycle, with major rallies occurring after each supply reduction. However, Bitwise’s latest report argues that structural changes in the market are reshaping this pattern.
According to the firm, the broader crypto market is expected to remain resilient and grow strongly in 2026, even beyond the typical post-halving timeframe.
Institutional Adoption and ETFs Reshape Market Cycles
Bitwise forecasts that 2026 will be a year in which Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs, noting that the impact of the 2024 halving is taking longer than usual to fully materialize.
Historical data shows that post-halving bull markets can take 12 to 18 months to fully unfold. Bitwise believes the delayed effect is being amplified by the growing role of institutional investors.
A key driver behind this structural shift is the rapid expansion of spot crypto ETFs. The report projects that ETFs could absorb more than 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) in the coming years.
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, inflows have significantly exceeded expectations. Bitwise views this as only the beginning of long-term institutional asset allocation, rather than short-term speculative demand.
As regulatory clarity improves, the firm expects major brokerage platforms and registered investment advisors to unlock additional demand in 2026, further accelerating adoption.
Bitwise’s Key Market Forecasts for 2026
The report outlines 10 major predictions for the crypto market in 2026.
Among the most notable forecasts is that Bitcoin could surpass its previous peak of approximately $126,080, setting a new all-time high.
Bitwise also predicts that Bitcoin’s price volatility will fall below that of Nvidia stock, a milestone that would signal Bitcoin’s growing maturity as an institutional-grade asset class.
Additionally, the firm expects crypto-related equities to outperform traditional technology stocks. Rising trading volumes and expanding business lines are likely to benefit companies such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy.
Other projections include:
Half of Ivy League university endowments holding crypto assets
More than 100 new crypto-related ETFs launching in the U.S.
Continued expansion of digital asset infrastructure across traditional finance
While acknowledging macroeconomic risks, Bitwise maintains an overall bullish outlook for 2026, arguing that structural adoption and regulatory progress outweigh cyclical concerns.
