Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle can rest in peace.
Investors have long-expected Bitcoin to sing the same song every four years. A halving cuts the rewards for issuing coins, kicking off an explosive price rally and subsequent bull market.
Later, when euphoria settles in and traders reckon price will never go down, investors start selling and the price collapses into a bear market.
Not anymore, a growing number of analysts say.
“The forces that previously drove four-year cycles — the bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fuelled boom-and-busts — are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,” wrote Bitwise’s chief investment officer Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen.
“The combination of these factors will push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, relegating the four-year cycle to history’s dustbin.”
Bitwise isn’t planting its flag all by itself either. Grayscale, in a December 17 report wrote “2026 will mark the end of the apparent four-year cycle.”
Changpeng Zhao, Binance’s old head honcho, also said at the Bitcoin MENA conference in December that the Bitcoin halving cycle “seems to have ended,” while renowned investor Cathie Wood of investment firm Ark Invest concurs.
“The four year cycle is going to be disrupted,” Wood told Fox Business. “Bitcoin regularly drops 70% to 90%, the volatility is going down, it’s down 35%, and there’s a fear of the four year cycle, but we think the move by institutions into this new asset class is going to prevent much more of a decline.”
Institutions pile in
The main drivers of a deceased boom-bust cycle are institutions.
“The wave of institutional capital that began entering the space with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will accelerate in 2026,” wrote Bitwise.
Indeed, institutions are here in size. Bitcoin treasuries now hold upwards of 1 million Bitcoin worth over $96 billion and the sector — albeit flailing in the fourth quarter — continues to accumulate coins.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are another source of relentless demand. The 11 providers led by $13.5 trillion BlackRock collectively hold nearly $150 billion in Bitcoin, according to Dune Analytics.
And that’s not to mention private hedge funds, family offices, or sovereign funds who have also been adding Bitcoin to their portfolios.
Macro demand
Another main source of inflows into Bitcoin will come from investors looking for shelter from adverse macroeconomic conditions.
“There will be ongoing macro demand for alternative stores of value,” wrote Grayscale. “Scarce commodities — whether physical gold and silver or digital Bitcoin and Ether — can potentially serve as a ballast in portfolios for fiat currency risks.”
To Grayscale, as long as the risk of fiat currency debasement keeps rising, demand for Bitcoin will likely continue rising. Especially as domestic currencies face risks “due to high and rising public sector debt and its potential implications for inflation over time.”
