After one of the most volatile periods in years, Citigroup is laying out a broad roadmap for where the crypto market could head next, placing clear price markers on both Bitcoin and Ethereum while acknowledging the growing gap between optimism around regulation and fragile market confidence.
In its latest outlook, the Wall Street bank set a 12-month target of $143,000 for Bitcoin and $4,304 for Ether, signaling that it still sees meaningful upside potential despite the sharp drawdowns that followed October’s highs. From current price levels, Citi’s base case implies a strong recovery rather than a continuation of the recent weakness.
Key Takeaways
Citi set a 12-month price target of $143,000 for Bitcoin and $4,304 for Ethereum
The bank also outlined a bull case near $189,000 for Bitcoin and a bear case around $78,000
Regulatory easing and adoption are seen as key drivers, despite recent market volatility
Rather than framing the move as a momentum-driven rally, Citi ties its expectations to structural changes taking place in the regulatory and institutional landscape. The bank argues that clearer rules and improving access could gradually translate into renewed capital inflows, even if near-term volatility remains elevated.
Regulation replaces speculation as the main catalyst
According to Citi, the crypto market’s narrative has shifted materially over the past year. Supportive signals from the White House and a softer enforcement stance from U.S. regulators have reduced legal uncertainty across the sector, prompting traditional financial institutions to re-engage with digital assets.
Citi believes this regulatory reset is laying the groundwork for broader adoption, particularly among investors who previously avoided crypto due to compliance concerns. In this framework, price appreciation is expected to follow usage and integration, rather than speculative excess.
That said, the bank is cautious about the path forward, noting that the market is still digesting the aftermath of a severe risk-off phase.
A violent correction reshapes sentiment
Bitcoin’s sharp decline late in the year marked one of its largest dollar-based pullbacks on record. As global risk appetite weakened and tech valuations came under pressure, crypto assets saw heavy outflows, amplified by forced selling tied to high-profile collapses across the sector.
The pressure intensified further after Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, lowered its earnings outlook for 2025, citing prolonged weakness in crypto prices. The move added to concerns that institutional conviction could soften during extended drawdowns.
Citi notes that following the correction, crypto prices now appear closer to levels suggested by on-chain activity and user engagement metrics, rather than speculative peaks.
Bull and bear scenarios widen the range
Beyond its central forecast, Citi outlined a wide band of potential outcomes. In a more favorable environment, where regulatory clarity translates into sustained inflows and risk appetite improves, the bank sees Bitcoin rising toward $189,000 and Ether approaching $5,132.
However, Citi also warns that downside risks remain significant. In a bearish scenario driven by macro stress or renewed market caution, Bitcoin could fall back toward $78,000, while Ether could decline to around $1,270 before stabilizing.
The bank’s outlook highlights a market in transition – no longer driven purely by hype, but not yet insulated from broader financial cycles. While Citi sees a path to higher prices over the next year, it also makes clear that crypto’s recovery is unlikely to be smooth.
