CF Benchmarks released a probability-weighted model Wednesday projecting cryptocurrency could reach $1.42 million per coin by 2035.
The Kraken-owned benchmark administrator expects 30.1% annualized returns over the next decade.
The forecast assumes Bitcoin (BTC) will capture roughly one-third of gold's market capitalization.
What Happened
Analysts Gabriel Selby and Mark Pilipczuk published a 42-page framework applying traditional capital market assumptions to cryptocurrency.
The base case projects Bitcoin at $1.42 million by 2035.
This represents a more than 1,500% increase from current levels near $87,000.
The bear case maintains Bitcoin's historical trend with 16% of gold's market share.
This scenario targets $637,000 by 2035.
The bull case envisions Bitcoin as the dominant global store of value.
Under this scenario, the price could reach $2.95 million per coin through accelerated institutional and sovereign adoption.
The model factors three pillars including comparative store-of-value valuation, production cost economics, and monetary liquidity sensitivity.
CF Benchmarks expects Bitcoin's volatility to decline from current levels to approximately 28% by 2035.
The report attributes compression to deeper liquidity, broader institutional participation, and maturing derivatives markets.
Why It Matters
The analysis positions Bitcoin as a portfolio component evaluated through standard capital market frameworks.
Institutional investors increasingly analyze cryptocurrency for long-term construction instead of short-term cycles.
The report argues 2% to 5% allocations can improve risk-adjusted returns.
Bitcoin maintains low correlation to traditional assets including 0.15 projected correlation to global equities and 0.22 to bonds.
The projections align with other prominent forecasts.
Cathie Wood targets $1.2 million by 2030.
Ark Invest projects $2.4 million by 2030.
Michael Saylor predicts $1 million within four to eight years.
Bitcoin currently trades 31% below its October all-time high of $126,080.
The cryptocurrency would require more than 1,000% gains to reach the $1 million threshold.
