U.S. financial giant JPMorgan released a new research report on the future of the stablecoin market on the 19th, reaffirming its outlook that the sector will grow steadily—but fall short of the most optimistic industry projections.
LATEST: ⚡ JPMorgan analysts are disputing the idea that stablecoins will become a multitrillion-dollar market in the near future, instead predicting they will reach just $500 billion to $600 billion by 2028. pic.twitter.com/vTS0M1eIyb
— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) December 19, 2025
2028 Market Size Forecast Left Unchanged
JPMorgan’s Global Research division reiterated its estimate that the global stablecoin market will reach USD 500 billion to USD 600 billion by 2028.
This forecast is significantly below the USD 1 trillion to USD 2 trillion projections cited by some industry advocates, reflecting the bank’s more conservative stance on long-term adoption.
According to Teresa Ho, JPMorgan’s Head of U.S. Short-Term Strategy, the current fiat-backed stablecoin market stands at roughly USD 300 billion, with Tether and Circle accounting for about 90% of total supply.
The report notes that stablecoin growth continues to be driven primarily by cryptocurrency trading activity, including derivatives markets, DeFi lending, and treasury management by crypto-native institutions. Many investors also use stablecoins as capital parking tools via offshore crypto exchanges.
Crypto Market Dependency Limits Broader Adoption
JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington highlighted that the market capitalization of the tracked stablecoin basket rose 2% month over month as of the end of June, marking seven consecutive months of growth despite broader market volatility.
However, he cautioned that this expansion remains highly correlated with the overall crypto market, rather than signaling widespread adoption as a general-purpose payment method.
In particular, fluctuations in Bitcoin prices continue to exert a strong influence on stablecoin liquidity and issuance, underscoring the sector’s dependence on crypto market cycles.
Payments Growth May Not Equal Market Expansion
JPMorgan also addressed a key structural dilemma: greater payment usage does not necessarily translate into explosive market growth.
As stablecoins become more efficient payment tools, the velocity of money increases, reducing the total supply required to facilitate transactions. In other words, the better stablecoins function as payment rails, the less demand there may be for large idle balances.
The report further points to rising competition from alternative solutions, including central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) such as the digital euro and digital yuan, tokenized bank deposits, and blockchain-based payment systems developed by commercial banks.
These alternatives could gradually erode the role of stablecoins in long-term settlement and institutional payment infrastructure.
Emerging Market Demand and Regulatory Tailwinds
On the positive side, JPMorgan acknowledges that emerging markets remain a meaningful source of demand. In countries facing high inflation or political instability, USD-pegged stablecoins are increasingly used as stores of value compared to local currencies.
Regulatory progress, such as potential U.S. legislation like the GENIUS Act, could also improve confidence in stablecoins as an asset class and support broader adoption.
Still, JPMorgan remains skeptical that stablecoins will rapidly penetrate the mainstream financial system beyond crypto. The bank sees a more realistic scenario in which the market grows two to three times its current size, reaching approximately USD 500 billion to USD 750 billion over the next several years.
Achieving growth beyond USD 1 trillion, the report concludes, would require breakthrough adoption in traditional finance and everyday payments, alongside strong and supportive regulatory frameworks.
