Bitcoin (BTC) traded in a relatively narrow range on Monday, fluctuating between $87,000 and just above $88,000, showing early signs of stabilization even as broader momentum over recent weeks has remained bearish.

With the calendar nearing year-end, a familiar seasonal question has resurfaced among traders: can Bitcoin still stage a Santa Rally before 2025 draws to a close?

To gauge the odds of a late-December rebound, three major artificial intelligence models, ChatGPT, Grok and Gemini were asked to analyze Bitcoin’s recent price action, historical seasonality and broader market conditions.

Santa Rally And Thin Liquidity

In traditional equity markets, a Santa Rally refers to gains during the final trading days of December and the first sessions of January.

While Bitcoin trades continuously, market participants typically apply the concept to the late-December to early-January window, when thinner liquidity can amplify price movements.

All three AI models broadly agreed that 2025 has been volatile.

Bitcoin moved through sharp rallies and prolonged consolidation phases, reaching new highs earlier in the year before entering a sustained pullback during the fourth quarter.

The divergence lies in how much upside, if any, remains for the closing weeks.

Gemini Sees Higher Odds Of A Bounce

Gemini offered the most constructive outlook.

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It described the year as one that began under pressure, surged to record highs midyear, and cooled sharply into Q4.

After peaking above $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin fell into the low $80,000 range before stabilizing closer to $85,000 to $90,000 heading into late December.

The model assigns a roughly 55% probability to a Santa Rally, defining it as a breakout above $95,000.

However, Gemini does not expect a return to all-time highs before year-end, pointing instead to a potential short-term relief move driven by sentiment and positioning.

Grok And ChatGPT Urge Caution

Grok takes a more restrained view, highlighting subdued volatility, late-year exchange-traded fund outflows and bitcoin’s continued distance from its October peak.

While recent price action suggests stabilization, Grok characterizes the market as consolidating rather than preparing for a breakout.

It places the odds of a meaningful Santa Rally between 30% and 40%, citing mixed historical December performance outside of strong bull markets.

ChatGPT’s assessment sits between the two. It frames 2025 as a year marked by repeated advances followed by extended digestion.

With Bitcoin still roughly 29% below its October highs and derivatives markets remaining defensive, ChatGPT estimates the probability of a Santa Rally at around 45%, defining it as bitcoin finishing the holiday period higher than it begins.

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