Canaccord Genuity just lifted its Tesla price target from $480 to $551, a 13% increase, saying short-term demand cracks aren’t the end of the road.
Even though Canaccord kept its buy rating, analyst George Gianarikas cut his Q4 2025 delivery forecast, citing a bigger-than-expected slump in demand. But he didn’t back off the bull case. He said the Tesla weakness looks temporary and doesn’t change the long-term story.
“There are constructive developments beneath the surface that support our BUY rating and justify a higher price target, even with the 4Q25 earnings cut,” George wrote.
He said Tesla’s stock price has held up for a reason: “With Tesla’s recent share-price strength, the market seems to be looking through the quarter, and we intend to do the same.” In other words, investors aren’t panicking, and neither is Canaccord.
Price target raised despite weak Q4 delivery forecast
George said the end of U.S. EV subsidies has hit short-term demand harder than expected. That’s why he revised the Q4 delivery estimate lower, even while raising the price target. Still, he sees it as a short dip, not a trend.
He added that the subsidy cut is “forcing a healthier, more durable market to emerge,” one that’s shaped by product strength, not government help.
According to George, the EV shakeout is making it clearer which carmakers actually care about electric vehicles. The rest? They just slapped together compliance projects to look busy. But Tesla, he said, has dedicated platforms, real software development, capital planning, and customer loyalty.
“Only brands with strong products, cost discipline, and loyalty are positioned to keep/gain share,” George wrote.
He pointed at Rivian as the only possible long-term rival, but didn’t sound too worried. The tone was clear: most carmakers are falling behind, and Tesla is still ahead, even if growth slows short-term.
EV growth in emerging markets adds to long-term optimism
Beyond the U.S. market, George highlighted growing EV adoption in countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. He called these markets “nascent opportunities” that could deliver long-term upside for Tesla, even though they’re small now.
He also touched on Tesla’s robotaxi rollout, which is moving slower than originally expected. Still, he backed it.
And he flagged one more thing Wall Street should be watching: the Optimus humanoid robot program. He said that by 2026, it could bring new attention to Tesla’s non-automotive business and help it tap new profit streams.
“Potentially more expansive news flow around the Optimus humanoid robot program in 2026 could further enhance Tesla’s perceived optionality in nonautomotive profit pools,” he wrote.
Taking all this together, George said these upsides “outweigh the near-term earnings reset in the valuation framework,” and that’s why he bumped the target price up to $551, even as Q4 deliveries go lower.
Shares of Tesla have climbed 21% this year, and Canaccord is betting that the rally still has more room to run.
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