CIOs Matt Hougan of Bitwise and Sebastian Bea of ReserveOne claimed that Bitcoin’s performance over the next decade will be strong, but nothing near spectacular. Separately, Bitwise’s Hougan claims that the four-year Bitcoin price cycle is less important now than it was in the past, and has been replaced by a ten-year grind.
According to Hougan, significant new forces have emerged that threaten to render the four-year BTC price cycle obsolete since the launch of the ETF in 2024. Without going into much detail, he added that these forces were accelerated by the regulatory progress in January of this year, as well as the growth of tokenization and stablecoins.
Meanwhile, Hougan noted that these forces were comparably bigger and stronger than the forces that drove the historical four-year BTC price cycle. However, he expects the BTC and crypto market in general to be up throughout the better part of next year.
Hougan says 4-year BTC price cycle still matters in people’s minds
Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, claimed that although the four-year Bitcoin price cycle is practically dead, the concept still resonates in people’s minds. He appears to believe that this is one of the primary reasons BTC prices have been suppressed this year. He also believes the new ten-year grind has been the reason behind Bitcoin’s lower volatility.
On the other hand, ReserveOne’s Sebastian Bea also observed that humans are predictably irrational. He, therefore, believes it is still somewhat difficult to determine whether the four-year BTC price cycle is truly dead.
However, Ryan Chow, the co-founder of Solv Protocol, explained that the traditional four-year trend is being replaced by more macro-correlated, liquidity-sensitive behavior.
“It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over.”
–Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise
Bea also noted that although the four-year BTC price cycle did not currently make sense, people could continue to react to the market based on this concept. He further noted that the severity of the upside or downside of these market reactions could differ from what typically occurs in a four-year BTC price cycle, as that trend may already have been phased out.
Meanwhile, well-known crypto KOL Alex Wacy recently stated that the four-year cycle has not yet been broken. He emphasized that what has been broken is people’s expectations. He further noted that optimism has been replaced with plummeting altcoin prices, a lack of hype or altcoin season, and investors are only experiencing dullness and pain.
DTCC to bring $99T of assets on-chain, possibly bringing a new cycle
According to Bea, the announcement of DTCC plans to bring $99 trillion of assets on-chain could usher in a new BTC price cycle. He seems to believe that this massive capital injection could significantly tip the Bitcoin ownership distribution scale, as Chow appears to believe that the 70%-80% crashes will soon be a thing of the past.
Data retrieved from River Financial shows that individuals hold the majority of Bitcoin, around 65.9% as of August 2025. Meanwhile, businesses (6.2%), ETFs & funds (7.8%), and governments (1.5%) hold smaller but growing shares.
Satoshi still holds the highest BTC holdings at 968,000 BTC (~4.6% of the supply), while other entities account for approximately 1.4% of the supply (~287,000 BTC). Notably, 7.6% (~1.58 million BTC) of the BTC supply is lost, and approximately 5.2% (~1.09 million BTC) remains to be mined.
Among the well-known individual Bitcoin billionaires are the Winklevoss twins, Tyler and Cameron, who currently hold an estimated 70,000 BTC. The duo reportedly bought $11 million worth of BTC at an average price of $10 per BTC.
VC titan Tim Draper is also another individual with massive BTC holdings. Despite losing 40,000 BTC initially purchased at the Mt. Gox exchange due to hacking, Draper bought 29,656 BTC in 2014 for $18.7 million, at an average of $632 per BTC.
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