Bitcoin has underperformed during its historically strongest quarter while gold reached record highs near $4,550, prompting analysts to examine whether precious metals patterns signal an impending reversal for digital assets. Macroeconomic, statistical and technical indicators from the gold market suggest Bitcoin may be approaching a bottom similar to the 2020 cycle, when precious metals peaked before triggering a cryptocurrency rally.
What Happened: Gold Peaks Before Bitcoin
Analyst BullTheory detailed on X how gold and silver typically reach highs before Bitcoin follows in a pattern that mirrors the 2020 market cycle.
Following the Mar. 2020 crash, the Federal Reserve injected substantial liquidity into markets. Gold rallied from approximately $1,450 to $2,075 by Aug. 2020, while Silver jumped from $12 to $29 during the same period.
Bitcoin remained range-bound between $9,000 and $12,000 for five months after the March liquidation event. "This was also after a major liquidation event which happened in March 2020 due to COVID," BullTheory wrote.
When precious metals peaked in Aug. 2020, capital shifted toward risk assets.
Bitcoin surged from $12,000 to $64,800 by May 2021, representing a 5.5x gain, while total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased eightfold.
Gold has reached record levels near $4,550, and silver has climbed to approximately $80. Bitcoin has been trading sideways in a pattern similar to mid-2020. "We also had another large liquidation event recently on October 10th, similar to March 2020," BullTheory noted.
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Why It Matters: Multiple Catalysts Converge
BullTheory argues Federal Reserve liquidity drove the 2020 rally, while 2026 presents multiple catalysts including renewed liquidity injections, expected rate cuts, potential SLR exemptions for banks, clearer crypto regulations and expanded spot crypto ETFs.
"Last cycle, Bitcoin rallied mainly because of liquidity. This time, liquidity plus structure is coming together," BullTheory stated. "Gold and silver moving first is not bearish for crypto."
Analyst PlanB noted Bitcoin is significantly diverging from its historical correlation with both gold and equities.
A similar decoupling occurred when Bitcoin traded below $1,000 before rallying more than tenfold.
"This happened before, when BTC was below $1k, and resulted in a 10x pump," PlanB wrote.
Macro strategist Gert van Lagen highlighted that the BTC/GOLD ratio's RSI is touching a downtrend line for the fifth time in history. In past cycles during 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022, this coincided with major bear market bottoms, each followed by Bitcoin regaining strength relative to gold. Van Lagen suggested the current setup could indicate a similar turning point if historical patterns repeat.
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