Bitcoin’s slide below the $90,000 level has reopened a familiar debate: is the market entering another prolonged downturn, or simply transitioning into a new phase of maturity?
For Matt Hougan, the answer lies somewhere in between. Rather than framing Bitcoin’s future around explosive cycles, Hougan believes the asset is settling into a slower, structurally different growth model that could define the next decade.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin may be entering a slower, more mature growth phase rather than repeating past boom-and-bust cycles
Long-term institutional accumulation is helping limit downside volatility
Recent price declines have been milder than in previous cycle downturns
The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is increasingly being questioned
In this model, Bitcoin no longer behaves like an early-stage technology chasing adoption spikes. Instead, it increasingly resembles a macro asset — one that trends higher over time but with fewer dramatic surges and crashes.
From Boom-and-Bust to Gradual Appreciation
Hougan’s outlook challenges the expectation that Bitcoin must deliver massive annual gains to remain attractive. He argues that the market is moving away from extreme volatility and toward a pattern of steady appreciation punctuated by periodic drawdowns.
This shift, in his view, explains why Bitcoin’s pullback from its October peak above $125,000 has been painful but comparatively restrained. A roughly 30% decline, while significant, is far less severe than the collapses that followed prior cycle tops.
That moderation, Hougan suggests, reflects a change in who now dominates the market.
The Role of Patient Capital
According to Hougan, Bitcoin’s downside is increasingly shaped by institutional behavior rather than retail sentiment alone. Large asset managers, treasuries, and long-term allocators tend to build positions gradually and are less likely to exit during short-term weakness.
This slow, persistent demand has altered the market’s floor. Instead of sudden liquidity vacuums, sell-offs now encounter steady absorption — limiting the depth of corrections even when momentum turns negative.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $87,800, down just under 4% over the past month. For Hougan, that price action reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is becoming more resilient, not less.
Is the Four-Year Cycle Losing Power?
Not everyone is convinced that Bitcoin’s traditional cycle has faded. Some analysts point out that the October high aligned closely with historical peak timing, raising the possibility that the market could still face an extended cooling period.
Sebastian Beau, chief investment officer at ReserveOne, has said it remains too early to declare the four-year pattern obsolete. The rapid drop from record highs, he noted, was sharp enough to revive cycle-based caution.
Hougan, however, sees that timing differently. He argues that retail investors may have accelerated the decline by rotating out early, anticipating a familiar post-peak collapse that ultimately failed to materialize at the same scale.
Why 2026 Still Matters
Despite the uncertainty, Hougan continues to view 2026 as constructive for Bitcoin. Not because of a single catalyst, but because of the broader structural forces now supporting the asset.
In his assessment, Bitcoin no longer needs narrative-driven hype or regulatory breakthroughs to move higher. Instead, its trajectory depends on adoption as a portfolio asset, ongoing institutional allocation, and its role as a non-sovereign store of value.
Those dynamics, he believes, favor gradual gains rather than explosive rallies — a trade-off that signals maturation rather than weakness.
Politics May No Longer Move the Needle
Hougan also downplays the idea that US politics will significantly reshape Bitcoin’s price path from here. While Bitcoin surged early in 2025 following the inauguration of Donald Trump, Hougan argues that most regulatory uncertainty has already been resolved.
With Bitcoin broadly classified as a commodity asset and institutional frameworks largely in place, political developments are less likely to trigger outsized moves than in previous years.
Beau echoed that view, suggesting that clarity — while positive — naturally reduces the shock factor that once fueled sharp rallies.
A Different Kind of Bull Market
Hougan’s thesis ultimately reframes what success looks like for Bitcoin. Instead of chasing another era of extreme gains, he envisions a prolonged period of consistent, lower-volatility growth driven by patient capital and structural adoption.
For investors, that may mean recalibrating expectations — fewer fireworks, but a more durable foundation for the years ahead.
