Luke Gromen says the “debasement” backdrop remains intact, but he is dialing down bitcoin risk as market signals deteriorate.

He told the RiskReversal podcast:

“[A move toward the $40,000 range] in 2026 is possible.”

Why Gromen is turning cautious

Gromen’s view is process-driven rather than a call that “bitcoin is dead.”

He said gold and some equities are currently expressing the debasement theme more clearly than bitcoin.

He also flagged three issues: bitcoin lagging gold, technical “trend damage,” and renewed quantum-computing headlines.

BTC vs. gold and trend damage

Gromen focuses on bitcoin priced in gold as a “store of value” check.

The article cited the BTC-to-gold ratio falling to about 20 ounces per BTC, down from roughly 40 ounces in December 2024.

On trend, he pointed to breaks below key moving averages.

Quantum headlines and sentiment

Gromen also said “quantum risk” narratives can pressure sentiment even if timelines are uncertain.

He described the dynamic as a market headwind that can coincide with weaker price action.

What he watches instead of predictions

Gromen’s framework emphasizes monitoring a few recurring inputs.

That includes BTC vs. gold, a trend filter, and ETF flow data.