Bitcoin is currently experiencing early stages of a bear market, based on multiple on-chain and market indicators. This trend is expected to continue throughout 2026, with prices likely to move lower rather than reach new all-time highs.
In a conversation with BeInCrypto, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, attributed the weakening demand as the main reason for this outlook.
On-Chain Data Confirms Bear Market
While many investors are still debating whether a broader crypto bear market lies ahead, Moreno said Bitcoin had already entered one as early as November 2025.
“Basically every on-chain metric or market metric confirms that we are in a bear market in the early stages,” he said in a BeInCrypto podcast episode.
According to him, this is only the beginning. He expects prices to continue trending downwards in the upcoming months.
“The question is how long it lasts or how low prices go, but from where we are starting, I wouldn’t expect new all-time highs,” Moreno added.
Moreno’s bearish outlook is not driven solely by price action, but by underlying fundamentals that he believes signal continued weakness ahead.
Bitcoin Demand Engine Starts Breaking
Bitcoin has been experiencing a structural contraction in demand over the past several months. To track this, CryptoQuant has been following the flow of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Between 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin demand was supported by several strong, identifiable tailwinds. When US spot Bitcoin ETFs were first launched, they triggered sustained institutional inflows and a sharp acceleration in demand.
Regulatory support in the United States under President Donald Trump further reinforced risk appetite.
However, this demand is now being dismantled.
“ETFs have become net sellers of Bitcoin since at least early November,” Moreno said, adding, “They were aggressively buying, then there was a slowdown, and now they are not buying, they are selling.”
This lack of demand has also become evident in other ways.
Forced Selling Risk Enters Focus
Last year, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a surge in companies adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
With Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) leading the way, firms such as MetaPlanet, Twenty One Capital, and MARA Holdings followed a similar accumulation playbook.
However, this rush to buy has faded.
“Other than MicroStrategy, basically all the Bitcoin treasury companies have stopped buying. If prices continue declining, there is a higher risk that we will see some companies forced to sell their holdings,” Moreno told BeInCrypto.
It’s precisely this forced selling risk that may serve as a potential accelerator of downside volatility.
According to Moreno, Bitcoin could reach a bottom as low as $56,000.
Despite the downside risks, Moreno stressed that Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook will ultimately depend on whether demand can recover.
“The moment demand stops contracting and starts to grow again, that’s when the market structure changes,” he said.
Until that shift becomes visible on-chain, the most productive approach to the market is one of caution.
