Global markets are entering the final stretch of the week with investors weighing mixed signals from equities, bonds, and policy expectations.
With volatility already elevated and positioning cautious, traders are looking for clarity that could define sentiment not just for the day, but for the months ahead.
Key Takeaways
U.S. markets face a volatile session as jobs data and a possible tariff ruling come into focus.
The December report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show modest hiring and a slight dip in unemployment.
A potential decision by the Supreme Court of the United States on Trump’s tariffs could impact trade, fiscal policy, and markets.
That clarity may come later today, as two high-impact developments in the United States move into focus, each with the potential to influence rates, fiscal expectations, and risk appetite.
Labor market takes center stage after disrupted data flow
The first major catalyst is the December employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which also serves as the final snapshot of how the U.S. labor market performed in 2025. The release marks a return to the normal data schedule after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history delayed several key economic indicators.
Economists are expecting a modest improvement compared to the previous two months. Forecasts point to roughly 73,000 new jobs added in December, while the unemployment rate is seen edging down to 4.5%. That would follow November’s rise to 4.6%, the highest level since mid-2021, and a combined loss of more than 40,000 jobs across October and November.
Despite expectations for a rebound, uncertainty remains elevated. Hiring trends toward the end of the year were uneven, leaving markets unsure whether December represents a genuine stabilization or just a temporary pause in a broader slowdown. With 2026 rate-cut expectations highly sensitive to labor conditions, even a small surprise in either direction could ripple across bonds and equities.
Supreme Court decision could reshape tariff policy
The second focal point is Washington, where the Supreme Court of the United States may issue a ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. While a decision is not guaranteed, Friday has been designated as a formal opinion day, fueling widespread speculation that the case could be addressed.
At the heart of the issue is whether the administration can legally rely on emergency economic powers to impose the tariffs. If the court rules against that authority, a secondary question emerges: whether importers should be reimbursed for duties already paid. Trade experts warn that potential refunds could reach extremely large sums, raising concerns about fiscal strain at a time when deficit reduction remains a priority.
Officials have indicated that alternative legal pathways exist to preserve much of the tariff framework, but any unfavorable ruling would likely trigger a complex and prolonged policy response. Economists note that blocking tariffs could lower input costs and support corporate earnings, while simultaneously weakening onshoring efforts and complicating fiscal planning. President Trump has maintained that tariffs have strengthened the U.S. economically and from a national security perspective, signaling that his administration would push forward regardless of legal setbacks.
Markets react with a split tone
Early market moves reflect this uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are trading higher, suggesting cautious optimism tied to economic resilience. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite is under pressure, as technology stocks remain more sensitive to shifts in rates and policy risk.
Taken together, today’s labor data and potential court ruling form a rare convergence of economic and political risk. How these events unfold may set the tone for markets well beyond the close, shaping expectations for growth, inflation, and policy into 2026.
Crypto market impact
Beyond traditional markets, today’s developments could also spill over into crypto trading. A weaker labor market outcome would likely reinforce expectations for easier monetary policy in 2026, a backdrop that has historically supported risk assets, including digital assets. At the same time, uncertainty around trade policy and potential fiscal strain could revive interest in alternative stores of value, particularly if bond yields react sharply.
If equity markets turn volatile, crypto could see short-term pressure, but sustained policy uncertainty may ultimately strengthen its appeal as investors reassess hedges outside the traditional financial system.
