Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said gold’s surge above $5,000 and uncertainty around the U.S. Clarity Act are becoming two key forces shaping bitcoin and digital asset markets.

In a client note published late Monday, Hougan pointed to rising demand for non-sovereign stores of value alongside unresolved U.S. regulatory clarity.

Gold’s rally and trust erosion

Gold rose 65% in 2025 and another 16% so far in 2026, pushing it above $5,000 per troy ounce for the first time.

Hougan said roughly half of gold’s dollar-denominated value was created in the past 20 months, despite its 2,000-year history as money.

He tied the move to years of money printing, debt, and currency debasement.

Hougan wrote:

“It shows that people no longer want to keep all of their wealth in a format that relies on the good graces of others.”

Geopolitics and reserve behavior

Hougan said central banks doubled annual gold purchases after the U.S. seized Russia’s treasury assets in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine.

He also cited calls in Germany to repatriate gold stored at the New York Federal Reserve and a Norwegian government panel warning that sovereign wealth could face higher taxation, regulatory intervention, or confiscation.

Clarity Act uncertainty

Hougan said odds for passage of the Clarity Act have fallen from around 80% earlier this year to closer to 50%.

He pointed to setbacks including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong calling the current version unworkable.

Market paths

Hougan said passage could spark a sharp rally as investors price in clearer growth for stablecoins and tokenization.

If it fails, he warned of a three-year “show me” period where prices depend more on demonstrated adoption than expectations.