Gold has surged to more than $5,000 per ounce, roughly doubling over the past year, according to a recent River newsletter.

River argued the move reflects gold’s role as an inflation and government-spending hedge, a narrative it said also fits bitcoin.

Gold’s role as a reserve asset

River said central banks are the largest holders of gold and have been reducing U.S. dollar exposure in favor of gold over the past six years.

It attributed the shift to decades of overspending and inflation that have weakened foreign confidence in the dollar’s ability to hold value.

River said gold at some point over the past year overtook dollars as the primary reserve asset held by central banks, a position it last held more than 50 years ago.

River wrote:

“The price of gold is rallying simply because it is being bought by the largest and most powerful entities in the world.”

Silver’s rally has different drivers

River said silver behaves differently because it is used more heavily as an industrial commodity, including in electronics, solar panels, electric vehicles, and medical equipment.

It said silver is being bought mainly by smaller investors seeking an inflation hedge and by manufacturers, rather than by central banks.

Where bitcoin fits versus gold

River said bitcoin remains “a blip” for central banks, but framed that as an opportunity because most institutions still have not bought.

It pointed to a November 2025 $1 million “test” bitcoin transaction by the Czech National Bank, which it said made the Czech Republic the 20th nation-state to own bitcoin.

River wrote:

“Bitcoin remains just a blip on the radar of central banks, while gold is taking all of the attention.”

River also contrasted scarcity, saying only about 1 million bitcoin remain to be mined, while new gold deposits are found each year, and highlighted bitcoin’s portability and self-custody advantages over gold.

River wrote:

“Owning both is perfectly reasonable.”