Bernstein maintained its $150,000 price target for Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of 2026, telling clients in a Monday note that the cryptocurrency's 44% decline from all-time highs represents a "crisis of confidence" rather than a structural breakdown — calling it "the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history."
What Happened: Bernstein Defends BTC
The analysis, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, argued that the hallmarks of past crypto crashes are absent from the current downturn.
There have been no large institutional collapses, no exposure of hidden leverage, and no widespread failures across the ecosystem.
Instead, Bernstein pointed to what it described as unusually strong institutional backing, including a pro-Bitcoin U.S. president, continued expansion of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, growing corporate treasury adoption, and sustained interest from large asset managers.
The firm dismissed arguments that Bitcoin has become irrelevant amid the rise of artificial intelligence, calling that view a reflection of shifting investor focus rather than a genuine threat.
Bernstein also downplayed risks of forced selling by corporate holders or miners. The analysts noted that major companies holding Bitcoin have structured their balance sheets to withstand prolonged downturns, referencing Strategy's recent earnings call where only an extreme scenario — Bitcoin falling to $8,000 and staying there for five years — would trigger restructuring.
Miners, the firm added, have diversified revenue by reallocating power resources toward AI data center demand.
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Why It Matters: Confidence Over Crisis
Bernstein's framing carries weight because it directly challenges the prevailing bearish narrative.
The firm's analysts argue that the factors supporting Bitcoin — regulatory tailwinds, ETF inflows, and institutional adoption — clearly distinguish this cycle from past downturns driven by excess risk and fragile market structures.
The message to investors is that current conditions look more like a sentiment-driven correction than a systemic unwinding.
If Bernstein's read is correct, the gap between Bitcoin's price and its $150,000 target may represent what the firm views as a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign.
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