Bitcoin's (BTC) bear market bottom likely sits near $55,000 - a level the cryptocurrency has not yet tested - and could take months to form, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. With bitcoin trading around $67,000 on Friday, the asset remains more than 20% above that threshold.
The $55,000 figure is based on bitcoin's realized price, a metric that calculates the average cost basis of all coins on the blockchain. In prior bear markets, bitcoin fell well below this line before recovering.
After the FTX collapse in November 2022, prices dropped 24% below the realized price. During the 2018 cycle, they fell 30% below it.
In both cases, bitcoin spent four to six months building a base before any sustained rebound began.
Why Capitulation Has Not Arrived
Several metrics tracked by CryptoQuant suggest the current downturn lacks the depth of past cycle bottoms.
On Feb. 5, bitcoin holders realized $5.4 billion in daily losses when the price fell roughly 15% to near $62,000. That was the largest single-day loss event since March 2023 and exceeded the $4.3 billion recorded days after the FTX exchange collapsed.
Yet cumulative monthly losses remain modest. CryptoQuant said they stand at 0.3 million BTC, compared with 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market.
The MVRV ratio - which compares market value to realized value - has not entered the extreme undervaluation zone seen at prior bottoms. Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric has not reached the roughly 20% unrealized loss level that marked previous cycle lows.
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Long-Term Holders Are Not Panicking
Holder behavior adds to the case that a full washout has not occurred. Long-term holders are currently selling near breakeven. In past bear markets, this cohort endured losses of 30% to 40% before prices bottomed.
Meanwhile, about 55% of bitcoin's supply remains in profit. At previous cycle lows, that figure typically dropped to the 45%–50% range.
CryptoQuant's own Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator sits in the Bear Phase, not yet in the Extreme Bear Phase that historically precedes prolonged bottoming periods.
Broader Bearish Consensus
The firm's assessment aligns with other recent calls for further downside. Standard Chartered on Wednesday cut its near-term outlook, projecting bitcoin could fall to $50,000 in the coming months before recovering, and lowered its end-of-year target to $100,000 from $150,000.
Bitcoin is down roughly 47% from its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000.
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