Jan3 CEO Samson Mow said bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold and the global money supply, arguing the gap could set up a reversal.
Gold’s surge and Mow’s valuation gap
Mow wrote on X that bitcoin is “about 24%-66% below its trend relative to gold’s market cap or global money supply,” while gold has become “overextended.”
Gold futures for April delivery closed Friday at $5,247.90 per ounce.
Z-score on the bitcoin-to-gold ratio
Mow also pointed to the Z-score of the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, a measure of how far the ratio is from its historical average.
He said when this Z-score drops below -2, bitcoin has historically seen “major” rallies.
The BTC-to-gold ratio Z-score was about -1.24 at the time of writing.
Prior drawdowns cited as examples
TradingView data shows the ratio’s Z-score fell below -3 in November 2022, during the FTX collapse.
Bitcoin then rallied more than 150% over the following 12 months.
Mow also cited March 2020, when the metric fell below -2 during the Covid crash.
Bitcoin dropped to about $3,717 and later rose more than 300% over the next 12 months.
By November 2021, BTC reached what was then an all-time high near $69,000.
Other analysts warn of $50,000
Mow’s view contrasts with analysts forecasting further downside amid investor uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
Some have said bitcoin’s price action could mirror the 2022 bear market and drift toward $50,000.
At the time of reporting, bitcoin was trading around $66,300.
