Circle's USDC has reached a record circulating supply of approximately $81 billion, with demand in the Middle East cited as a contributing factor.
In a separate development on the same day, Mizuho Securities analysts reported USDC has surpassed Tether's USDT in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019 - capturing 64% of combined stablecoin activity year-to-date.
The two datapoints together offer the sharpest read yet on USDC's shifting competitive position in a stablecoin market where Tether still holds a commanding market-cap lead at roughly $184 billion.
What's Driving Supply Growth
USDC's circulating supply stood at approximately $70 billion in early February and $75 billion earlier this month before climbing to a new high, per CoinMarketCap data.
Rami Al-Hashimi, a Dubai-based trader with more than 165,000 followers on X, attributed part of the surge to over-the-counter desk activity in the UAE, claiming lines have formed at OTC venues as investors seek dollar-denominated digital assets amid regional financial stress. Fundstrat's Tom Lee cited Al-Hashimi's post as an illustration of stablecoin utility.
Al-Hashimi's claims should be treated with caution: he is a self-described trader, not an analyst, and lost approximately 99.79% of his portfolio in a single leveraged trade in June 2025.
His account of Dubai real estate prices falling 27% this month was not independently verified. TradingView data does show the DFM Real Estate Index - tracking listed property and construction firms - declining roughly 31% from its recent peak to approximately 11,516, consistent with a significant local market correction.
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The Mizuho Finding
The more structurally significant development is Mizuho's adjusted volume analysis.
Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins measured activity across addresses identified as institutions, exchanges, and protocols, excluding high-frequency wash-trading patterns.
On that basis, USDC processed approximately $2.2 trillion in adjusted volume year-to-date against USDT's $1.3 trillion. The analysts defined this as transfers that resemble real economic activity - payments, DeFi protocol flows, prediction market settlements - rather than automated cycling.
The reversal ends a six-year stretch in which USDT consistently dominated transaction share. Mizuho raised its Circle price target to $120 from $100 while maintaining a neutral rating, citing expanding USDC use cases including prediction markets and autonomous agent payments.
USDT retains its dominant market-cap position at roughly 2.4 times USDC's supply.
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