Technical analyst Alessio Rastani has updated his Bitcoin (BTC) outlook in a recent interview, warning that the cryptocurrency's short-term bounce has not yet produced sufficient price structure to rule out another leg lower - potentially testing the $60,000 level before a durable bottom forms.
Bitcoin was trading near $72,400 at time of writing, down roughly 43% from its October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,200.
Rastani, who has previously appeared in Cointelegraph interviews discussing Bitcoin cycle analysis, argues that the recent recovery from lows lacks the breadth and durability required to confirm a sustained uptrend.
In his view, the probability still favors at least one more downside move.
Key Levels He's Watching
Rastani identifies a support corridor roughly spanning $59,000 to $46,000 as the zone where conditions could become increasingly attractive for longer-term positioning.
He notes that even if Bitcoin breaks below $60,000, the downside may be more contained than a headline drop suggests, given the depth of buying interest he expects in that range.
At the same time, he remains skeptical that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026, suggesting instead that any meaningful recovery could be delayed further into the cycle.
Read also: SEC's Atkins Ditches Enforcement Playbook For Crypto Clarity
Why the Halving Cycle May Mislead
Rastani's broader argument centers on the limitations of fixed analytical frameworks. He cautions against relying too heavily on the four-year halving cycle as a predictive tool, arguing that treating cyclical patterns as mechanistic has caused investors to misread market turning points.
He draws a parallel with his macro equity outlook, where he sees a potential top forming in stock markets over coming months - a development that could create a correlated headwind for Bitcoin given its current ties to broader risk sentiment.
Analyst Opinion in Context
It is worth noting that Rastani's views represent one technical read of price action.
Bitcoin analysts have diverged sharply on the 2026 outlook: some, including Arthur Hayes, have flagged the mid-$70,000 range as a potential dead-cat bounce, while others point to accelerating institutional inflows as a structural floor.
Rastani's prior November 2025 interview took a more bullish tone, assigning a 75% probability to a short-term rally - a call that proved partially accurate before the subsequent decline.
Current Bitcoin price levels remain more than 40% below October's all-time high, and open questions about Fed rate policy, geopolitical energy prices, and legislative progress on the CLARITY Act continue to shape the macro backdrop his analysis draws on.
Read next: PEPE Whale Transfers Jump 61% In Weekly Data
