Bitcoin (BTC) bounced above $70,200 after touching a low near $67,342 but now faces critical resistance at $71,650 that could determine whether the recovery has legs or fades into another selloff, while at least one analyst warns the broader cycle may already be turning bearish.

BTC Recovery Levels

The price climbed past $69,800 and $70,200, reclaiming territory above the 100-hour simple moving average on the BTC/USD pair tracked by Kraken. It briefly pushed toward $72,000.

That move covered more than 50% of the Fibonacci retracement measured from the $75,998 swing high to the $67,342 low.

A bullish trend line has formed with support at $70,400 on the hourly chart. Immediate resistance sits near $71,200, with $71,650 as the key level to clear.

A close above $71,650 could open the path toward $72,650 — the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the same range. Beyond that, $73,200 and $73,500 are the next targets. On the downside, losing $70,000 would expose $69,200, then $68,800. The major floor remains $67,500.

The hourly MACD is losing momentum in the bullish zone. RSI has slipped below 50, suggesting weakening upward pressure.

Also Read: Ethereum Clears $2,145 Bearish Trend Line

Swallow Academy Bear Warning

Crypto analyst Swallow Academy posted that BTC may have already entered a bear market cycle. He identified what he describes as a completed Head and Shoulders pattern.

The first shoulder formed in early 2025. The head came when BTC hit a new all-time high later that year, and a second shoulder emerged in 2026 as the price reversed.

Swallow Academy concedes the second shoulder appears weaker than usual but argues the formation remains valid. He pointed out that altcoins never rallied after BTC's all-time high, defying expectations of an altcoin season. That deviation, he argues, suggests the bear market will also follow an unconventional path — with a possible drop below $30,000.

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