A growing share of Bitcoin (BTC) sits with long-term holders, yet on-chain data suggests the asset has not entered a confirmed bull phase.

On-Chain Data Cools Bull Market Talk

Long-term holders now control 66.5% of circulating Bitcoin supply, according to fresh CheckOnChain figures cited by AMBCrypto. The reading remains low compared with prior cycle peaks near 80%.

Many of those coins moved into long-term status while underwater. Holders who bought near the December open around $90,000 have aged into the cohort, but BTC trades roughly 15% below that level.

Bitcoin recovered above $78,700 this week after a swing low near $77,000, data from Coinbase shows. The 13.7% Q2 rally has lifted risk appetite, even as supply dynamics stay cautious.

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Santiment Flags FOMO Risk Near $80K

Santiment reported that crowd sentiment flipped from extreme pessimism on Monday into "ultra FOMO mode" by Thursday. The firm warned that a clean break above $80,000 would look healthier after optimism cools.

Analysts argue the cycle stays transitional until LTH supply pushes toward the 85% range historically tied to durable bull phases.

Bitcoin set an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025, then corrected sharply through Q1 2026. The asset bottomed close to $65,000 before grinding back toward the $80,000 resistance band that has capped recent attempts.

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