VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel says Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $1 million per coin within roughly five years.
VanEck's Bitcoin Base Case
Sigel laid out the call on CNBC's Halftime Report on Wednesday, framing $1 million as the firm's base-case scenario rather than an outlier bet. He told the network the milestone could arrive inside half a decade.
Sigel pointed to demographic shifts and rising allocations from younger investors as the structural drivers, and he cited the first central bank purchase of Bitcoin for reserves as proof that adoption is moving past retail speculation.
To explain the trajectory, Sigel compared Bitcoin to the video game industry, arguing that an asset class once seen as niche tends to broaden across age groups, with newcomers rarely walking away.
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Wall Street's $1M Chorus
Sigel's projection puts VanEck alongside Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Jan3 CEO Samson Mow, both of whom have floated seven-figure Bitcoin targets using different analytical frameworks.
Eric Trump, co-founder of American Bitcoin, echoed the same $1 million figure during a separate appearance on Wednesday, adding another high-profile voice to the bullish chorus.
Still, Sigel acknowledged the road will be rough.
He said Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq has hit a five-year high, suggesting macro forces are steering the current rally rather than crypto-specific speculation. He added that the lack of froth in derivatives markets supports a constructive outlook, with positioning still leaning bearish and short covering driving recent gains.
Bitcoin's Bumpy Road
The current price tells the harder story. Bitcoin would need to climb more than 12-fold from roughly $81,042, where it traded at the time of Sigel's comments, to validate the $1 million call.
The asset hit a record above $126,000 in October 2025 before pulling back through the winter and sliding to current levels. Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $2.44 billion in net inflows during Apr. 2026, the strongest month since the 2025 peak, and recorded five consecutive days of inflows through May 6, a signal that institutional appetite has not faded despite the deeper drawdown.
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