Bitcoin (BTC) climbed past $82,000 on Wednesday as a 67-day stretch of negative funding rates pointed to mounting short squeeze risk, research firm K33 said.
K33 Flags Funding Streak
Bitcoin reached its highest level in more than three months, while the longest negative funding run this decade could amplify pressure on bearish traders. Research firm K33 outlined the trend in a Tuesday report covered by FXStreet, The Block and Decrypt.
The 30-day average funding rate has now stayed negative for 67 straight days, surpassing the run from March to May 2020. K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said the streak reflects defensive positioning across the market, even as Bitcoin trends higher.
"Historically, sustained periods of negative funding have often occurred near market bottoms, suggesting that conditions like the current tend to have a positive directional impact on the BTC," Lunde wrote.
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Squeeze Risk Builds
Lunde argued that buying Bitcoin during similar funding regimes has consistently produced strong forward returns.
Win rates ran from 83% to 96% across 30-day to 360-day windows, against 55% to 70% for random entries since October 2018. Median and average returns in those periods beat random buying by 1.84 to 6.27 times, per K33 data.
Matthew Pinnock, COO at Altura DeFi, told Decrypt that a clean breakout could spark a violent move. "If shorts are forced to unwind, funding flips positive and Bitcoin could move sharply through $100K on a squeeze," he said.
Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, said a clean break of $82,000 with confirming ETF flows would likely trigger the unwind.
Bitcoin's Recent Path
Bitcoin has rebounded sharply since hitting roughly $60,000 on Feb. 6, gaining more than 35% over the stretch.
Even so, the asset still sits about 35% below its October 2025 record near $126,000, with spot volumes near yearly lows even as derivatives leverage rises.
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