OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing this week, with prediction markets now giving rival Anthropic just a 20% chance of going public first.
OpenAI Targets September Debut
OpenAI is set to confidentially file a draft prospectus as soon as Friday, working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on the paperwork.
The ChatGPT maker is targeting a September debut at a valuation that could exceed $1 trillion, the Wall Street Journal first reported and CNBC later confirmed.
That timeline blindsided traders on event markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Before the filing news broke, Kalshi pegged OpenAI's odds of beating Anthropic to public markets at just 32%.
Those odds have since jumped to 83%, while Polymarket showed Anthropic's chances of listing first collapse from 69% to 20% in hours.
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Why Going First Matters
The strategic logic behind the rush is straightforward. The first major AI listing absorbs the bulk of institutional capital, sets the valuation benchmark and forces rivals to price against it.
"Getting to public markets first is very important, given this arms race going on," said Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, who pointed to the early mover's edge in setting the tone for investor roadshows.
The timing also follows a clean legal slate. A California jury last weekend dismissed all claims in Elon Musk's lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, removing a cloud over the company's governance shift.
OpenAI's Mar. funding round closed at an $852 billion valuation, with $122 billion raised from backers including Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank and Microsoft.
Anthropic Faces Squeeze
Anthropic, the Claude maker, had been the consensus favorite to list first. Its annualized revenue climbed from roughly $9 billion in late 2025 to about $30 billion by the end of Mar., driven by demand for coding tools.
It has held early talks with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley about an October offering.
An OpenAI September listing would force Anthropic to either accelerate its process or wait until 2027.
The broader IPO pipeline is heavy.
SpaceX officially filed Wednesday for a Nasdaq listing targeting roughly $1.5 trillion, meaning the three companies could add nearly $3 trillion in fresh public market capitalization.
OpenAI's path to this moment has been unusual since the lab was founded as a non-profit in 2015. Cumulative funding now tops $200 billion, and secondary market trades have pushed implied valuations above the levels set in March.
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