Bitcoin bounced back to $77 000 on Sunday after Trump announced a near-finalized peace deal with Iran that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Takeaways:
BTC dropped to $74,500 Saturday before recovering above $77,000 within hours.
Trump announced a “largely negotiated” agreement with Iran that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Price rebounded exactly from the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $74,125 – a critical technical support zone.
$328.97M in liquidations on the day – $190M longs, $138.97M shorts.
Bitcoin fell sharply to $74,500 on Saturday before recovering above $77,000, after Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had “largely negotiated” a Memorandum of Understanding on peace – one that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement followed a call from the Oval Office involving leaders from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Pakistan, and Turkey, with a separate call to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu described by Trump as also going “very well.” Final details of the deal, Trump said, would be announced shortly.
Price moved within minutes of the post going live – down $2,500 in the morning, then right back up in the afternoon, all within the same session.
What the Chart Is Actually Saying
The technical picture heading into today was already complicated. From January’s high of $82,874, Bitcoin had been grinding lower through February and March before building a base and recovering back toward the $80,000 area by early May. Saturday’s drop brought price back down to test two things at once: the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $74,125 and a short-term horizontal support level that has held on multiple recent touches. The fact that buyers defended both levels with conviction matters – a clean break below $74,125 would have put the 0.5 retracement at $71,423 back on the table.
The current level around $76,973 now puts Bitcoin right up against the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $77,469, which is the next meaningful resistance. A daily close above that level would be a constructive sign – it would confirm the bounce rather than just leaving price stuck underneath a known selling zone. Until that happens, the recovery is real but unconfirmed on the daily timeframe.
The 50-day SMA sits at $72,634, curling upward and acting as a rising floor below price. The 200-day SMA at $80,663 remains the bigger obstacle above, and that’s where sellers have shown up repeatedly since May began.
The RSI on the daily was sitting at 46.75 heading into Sunday – neutral, neither oversold nor showing any sign of a breakdown. It has since recovered to 51.86, just above the midline, which gives the bounce some credibility without confirming anything conclusive about the direction from here.
Leverage Gets Cleaned Out First
Saturday’s $328.97 million in liquidations, according to CoinGlass data, were skewed heavily toward longs – $190 million against $138.97 million in shorts. That flush is what drove the initial drop to $74,500, with overleveraged traders getting cleared out before the political headlines gave the market a reason to reverse. It’s a pattern that has repeated itself throughout the Iran crisis: a sharp move down clears out the crowded side of the trade, a geopolitical catalyst hits, and price snaps back faster than most people can react.
The Hormuz Factor Has Controlled This Market for Weeks
Since the U.S. Navy blockade was announced in April following the collapse of earlier peace talks in Pakistan, Bitcoin has been trading in direct response to diplomatic headlines rather than on-chain fundamentals. The blockade had trapped over 230 oil tankers in the Gulf and pushed crude past $100 per barrel, creating a sustained macro headwind for risk assets including crypto. Any credible signal that the strait reopens removes that headwind – which is what markets are now pricing in, with reservations.
Trump’s post noted that “final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed,” which is not a signed agreement. Iranian officials have previously rejected proposals that didn’t include war reparations, and the history of this negotiation is a series of deadlines extended, deals announced and walked back, and rallies that reversed just as fast. Bitcoin hit $79,488 in late April on similar deal optimism before giving back those gains when talks stalled again.
What’s different this time, at least on paper, is the number of regional actors involved in Saturday’s call and the explicit mention of the strait in Trump’s statement. Whether that translates into a formal agreement that holds is a separate question – one the market will likely get an answer to before the week is out. Until then, Bitcoin is back in familiar territory: above $77,000, below $80,000, and the 0.236 level at $77,469 is the line to watch on the daily close.
