ADA is testing the same multi-year support line that launched the 2021 rally, while millionaire wallets hold 67.49% of supply at their highest collective holdings since 2017.
Key Takeaways:
ADA at $0.2310, testing horizontal support that has held since 2020.
Monthly RSI at 38.92, signal at 46.78, sustained bearish momentum on monthly chart.
Wallets holding 1M+ ADA collectively hold 25.11B ADA, highest since December 2017.
67.49% of total ADA supply held by millionaire wallets, highest since July 2020.
Cardano is trading at $0.2310, down 6.21% on the monthly candle, and sitting on the support line that has held since 2020. This is the same level ADA was trading at before the 2021 rally that took it to $3.00. The line has been tested twice since then and held both times. It’s being tested again now.
ADA peaked at $3.00 in mid-2021 and pulled back to the support line. It bounced from there, recovered to around $0.80 in early 2024, then pushed to $1.30 by the end of 2024 before rolling over again. Now it’s back at the line for the third time. Each bounce made a lower high than the one before it. $3.00, then $1.30. The line keeps holding but the recoveries keep getting smaller.
Monthly RSI at 38.92 with the signal line at 46.78 confirms sustained bearish momentum. RSI is nearly 8 points below its signal on a monthly chart. That’s not short-term noise, that’s months of consistent selling. The last time monthly RSI was this low was during the 2022-2023 bear market lows. RSI isn’t at oversold extremes yet, which means there’s still room to fall before RSI reaches the kind of oversold levels where buyers have shown up in previous cycles.
The SMA50 at $0.4825 is the only moving average on the chart. It’s declining above current price, too far away to act as support in the near term.
What the Santiment data adds
According to Santiment data, wallets holding at least 1 million ADA collectively hold 25.11 billion ADA, their highest amount since December 2017. That group now controls 67.49% of total ADA supply, the highest concentration since July 2020.
The last time millionaire wallets held this much of the supply was right before the 2020-2021 rally that took ADA from $0.10 to $3.00. These are holders who have watched multiple cycles and have the most to gain or lose. They’re not selling at $0.23. They’re accumulating at the same levels they were at before the 2020-2021 rally.
The chart and the on-chain data are pointing in different directions. The price chart shows lower highs each cycle and a support line being tested for the third time with weakening momentum. The on-chain data shows the largest holders accumulating at the same price levels that preceded the biggest rally in ADA’s history.
The millionaire wallet accumulation is already happening at these levels. If the support line holds, that accumulation could set up another bounce. If the pattern of lower highs continues, a recovery toward $0.50-$0.80 could be the realistic ceiling. A new all-time high would need something to change fundamentally about Cardano’s adoption.
If the support line breaks on a monthly close, five years of macro floor is gone. Below it there is very little structure visible on the chart before pre-2020 territory under $0.10. That would be a different kind of conversation entirely.
For now the line is holding. The people who know ADA best are buying it at these prices. Whether that changes the pattern of lower highs is what the next few monthly candles could show.
