Bitcoin stopped its correction at the SMA100 yesterday and is attempting a recovery toward $74,071 - rising open interest adds fuel to the move but also raises the stakes if it fails.
Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin at $73,558, SMA100 at $73,054 held as support yesterday.
RSI at 35.74, signal at 43.79 – approaching oversold on daily chart
0.382 Fib at $74,071 is immediate resistance, 0.236 Fib and SMA50 cluster at $77,220-$77,397
Binance leads open interest at 302,500 BTC, Bybit second at 230,000 BTC
Rising OI while price sits at support could amplify next move in either direction
Yesterday’s correction pushed Bitcoin down through the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $74,071 and kept going until it hit the SMA100 at $73,054. That’s where it stopped. The SMA100 has been rising throughout the recovery from the February lows and absorbed the selling. Today Bitcoin is trading at $73,558, attempting to recover back toward the 0.382 Fib level that was lost yesterday.
The levels that matter right now
The immediate target to the upside is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $74,071 – roughly $500 above current price. If Bitcoin pushes through that level and holds it on a daily close, it could open the path toward the next meaningful resistance – the SMA50 at $77,220 and the 0.236 Fib at $77,397 sitting just $177 apart. Two levels that close together is a lot of resistance in a small price range. Even if price gets there, a declining SMA50 and a Fibonacci level at the same price could push it back down toward $74,071.
If the current move toward $74,071 fails, the SMA100 at $73,054 becomes the test again. It held once, so buyers know where it is. But if the SMA100 breaks on a daily close, yesterday’s lows around $72,500 become the next reference point, and below that the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $71,382 comes into view.
The daily RSI at 35.74 is approaching the oversold zone that has historically attracted buyers on Bitcoin’s daily chart. The signal line at 43.79 is well above RSI, confirming that downward momentum has been sustained. Sitting on a rising SMA100 with RSI near 30 is not where you want to be adding short positions historically. That’s not a bullish call – it just means the sellers have been running for a while and the levels underneath are getting stronger not weaker.
What the open interest data adds
According to CryptoQuant data covering the 30-day change in Bitcoin futures open interest, OI has been climbing back after the massive flush in February 2026 when Bitcoin crashed from the $120,000 range toward $63,000. Binance leads with approximately 302,500 BTC in open interest, Bybit sits second at around 230,000 BTC, and OKX adds approximately 99,000 BTC, with additional activity on Kraken, BitMEX, and Gate.io.
The February crash produced one of the sharpest OI collapses in the dataset – leveraged positions getting wiped out as price fell. Since March the OI has been rebuilding and is now climbing back toward levels seen in late 2025. That rebuilding is happening while price sits at $73,500 on the SMA100 with RSI at 35.
That combination cuts both ways. Rising OI at a support level means new leveraged positions are being built at exactly the point where the chart is being tested. If those positions are predominantly long and the support holds, the OI could amplify the recovery toward $74,071 and potentially higher. Buyers with leverage move price faster than spot buyers alone.
But if the support breaks and those long positions get squeezed, the OI works in the opposite direction. Liquidations add selling pressure on top of the organic selling, accelerating the move toward $72,500 and the 0.5 Fib at $71,382 faster than a spot-only market would. The February chart is the recent example of how quickly that can play out when a leveraged market loses a key level.
Where things stand
Bitcoin is sitting on the SMA100 with RSI approaching oversold and open interest rebuilding. The 0.382 Fib at $74,071 is the first test to the upside. If it holds as support on a daily close, the next attempt at the $77,220-$77,397 resistance cluster could follow. If it doesn’t, the SMA100 gets tested again, and a break of that level could accelerate toward $72,500 and lower with OI amplifying the move.
The SMA100 held yesterday. Whether it holds again and whether $74,071 flips back to support are what the moves that should be kept under eye now.
