The XRP price has been exhibiting a complex pattern of consolidation and retracement for weeks. However, according to prominent market analyst Egrag Crypto, there’s a critical signal to watch for that could determine whether the cryptocurrency’s bullish narrative remains intact or not. The expert’s analysis, shared on X social media, highlights that the behaviour of XRP’s 3-day candles could soon decide the direction of its next major move. 

XRP Price Integrity Hinges On 3-Day Candle Closes Below $2

In his post on X, Egrag Crypto explains the “measured move breakdown” for XRP, identifying a key technical formation in the form of a descending triangle that, based on its structure, points to a potential move toward $2.14. The accompanying chart shows XRP hovering between $2.40 and $2.60, with multiple retests of the same price levels over the past few months. Despite the brief wick to the downside, Egrag Crypto suggests that the structure continues to indicate consolidation within the range. 

The analyst reiterates that $2.65 remains a critical price target for XRP. If the cryptocurrency breaks and sustains above it, he predicts that it could regain upward momentum, potentially paving the way for renewed bullish sentiment. However, failure to hold current levels around $2.5 might expose XRP to deeper retracements, particularly if 3-day candles start closing below the $2.00 to $1.91 range. 

Egrag Crypto warns that this specific candle behaviour is concerning, as it could signal a structural breakdown of XRP’s market cycle. It could also invalidate his bullish thesis, suggesting that the recent peak near $3.65 may have been the cycle top. 

Additionally, the analyst’s chart shows XRP’s price action hovering above the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), serving as a long-term support level. Should XRP maintain its position above this moving average, Egrag Crypto asserts that the cryptocurrency’s bullish setup remains valid. He noted that the next 60 to 90 days are expected to be crucial, as XRP’s reaction around the levels mentioned above could define the trajectory of the rest of the year.  

XRP Faces 57% Chance Of Breaking To A New ATH

In a separate analysis, Egrag Crypto introduced a 57% to 43% probability model, sharing his broader perspective on XRP’s potential price direction in the short term. He stated that there is a 57% probability that XRP could break into a new all-time high in the coming months. He also sees a 43% chance that the cryptocurrency could decline significantly, offering traders another opportunity to accumulate it at a price below $1. 

While the probabilities of XRP’s near-term price favor a more bullish outcome, the bearish case remains plausible given the lingering macroeconomic uncertainty and overall crypto market volatility. Egrag Crypto notes that he is personally positioning himself toward the bullish scenario, aligning his expectations with the 57% chance of a major price breakout.