Nearly eleven years after its infamous collapse, Mt. Gox is preparing for what could finally be the last chapter in its bankruptcy saga.
The trustee overseeing the case faces an October 31, 2025 deadline to complete all remaining Bitcoin and cash repayments – a milestone that could see up to 34,689 BTC (about $3.7 billion) change hands.
The Tokyo court extended the timeline last year after administrative delays slowed the process, though most verified creditors have now received at least part of their due. Distributions are being handled through exchanges such as Bitstamp and Kraken, or in cash for those who opted out of crypto payments.
How Much Is Still at Stake
Of the original 142,000 BTC pool, roughly 107,000 BTC has already been repaid. Blockchain data shows that about 59,000 BTC eventually reached exchanges, with another 33,000 BTC parked in BitGo custody. That leaves about 35,000 BTC still to be processed – though it’s unclear how much of it will ever hit public order books.
Even under a “worst-case” scenario, if 60% of that amount ends up on exchanges, the influx would represent about 22,000 BTC, or roughly $2.4 billion. Given Bitcoin’s liquidity and market depth, analysts say such volumes would be easily absorbed.
Three Possible Outcomes
Market observers outline three paths for the final transfers:
- Gradual rollouts through exchange and custody accounts, spreading inflows over weeks.
- Private OTC sales that never reach spot markets.
- Sudden exchange inflows that momentarily lift trading volumes but fade quickly.
Past Mt. Gox movements support the first two. When 47,000 BTC were moved in July 2024, prices barely budged – a stark contrast to the unrelated yen carry trade unwind that sent Bitcoin plunging that same month.
More Symbolic Than Systemic
After years of anticipation, many now view the Mt. Gox deadline as a psychological milestone rather than a market-moving event. The distribution has been slow, predictable, and well-tracked by on-chain analysts – leaving little room for surprise.
Once the final coins are delivered, one of crypto’s longest-running sagas will finally end – not with a selloff, but with a quiet close.
