Polymarket has introduced a new prediction market event focused on the potential for a permanent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran before Trump's anticipated visit to China. The current probability of such an agreement being reached stands at 7%. The market will resolve as "Yes" if a permanent peace agreement is achieved before Trump's visit, and "No" otherwise. If neither event occurs by December 31, 2026, the market will also resolve as "No". The criteria for a permanent peace agreement include a formal written agreement or public confirmation by both governments that military hostilities will permanently cease. The prediction market's outcome will rely on official information from the U.S. and Iranian governments, as well as credible reports regarding Trump's visit to China.
Polymarket Launches Prediction Market on U.S.-Iran Peace Deal
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