The world's largest Ethereum wallet MetaMask has made history by becoming the first self-custodial crypto wallet to offer native prediction market access.

Through an exclusive partnership with Polymarket, MetaMask now allows its 30 million monthly users to bet on real-world events directly from their mobile wallets.

The integration launched on December 4, 2024, marking a significant shift in how people interact with prediction markets. Users can now trade on outcomes ranging from sports championships to political elections without leaving the MetaMask app.

How the Integration Works

MetaMask’s new prediction markets feature eliminates the hassle of switching between different apps. Users can browse available markets, fund their accounts, and place bets all within the familiar MetaMask interface.

The platform supports what they call “one-tap funding,” allowing users to deposit any token from any Ethereum-compatible blockchain network. This means someone can use tokens from Ethereum, Polygon, Base, or Arbitrum to fund their prediction market trades.

According to MetaMask’s announcement, every prediction placed creates a money-backed stake that generates collective signals about future outcomes. This approach leverages the “wisdom of the crowd” principle, where real money stakes tend to produce more accurate forecasts than traditional polling methods.

Source: @MetaMask

Mike Lwin, MetaMask’s senior director of product, explained that using prediction markets on mobile devices has been problematic. The integration solves this by keeping everything within one trusted platform, making it easier to trade during live events like games or debates.

Fee Structure Sparks User Debate

While Polymarket’s direct platform operates without trading fees, MetaMask charges a 4% fee on every transaction. This fee gets split equally between MetaMask and Polymarket.

Ajay Mittal, MetaMask’s VP of product strategy, said the company researched pricing across both prediction markets and traditional sports betting platforms. He argued that a flat fee provides the clearest and most predictable structure for users, regardless of the likelihood of any particular outcome.

To offset these fees, MetaMask offers rewards through its points program. Users earn 2 points for every dollar they trade, which connects to the company’s planned token launch. However, some users have criticized the 4% fee structure, calling it excessive compared to Polymarket’s free direct trading.

Polymarket’s Remarkable Growth Story

The timing of this integration coincides with Polymarket’s explosive growth throughout 2024. The platform has seen significant trading volume increases and user growth, particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle.

Polymarket gained massive attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where its markets correctly signaled Donald Trump’s victory ahead of many traditional polls. This success helped establish prediction markets as legitimate forecasting tools alongside conventional polling methods.

In October 2024, Intercontinental Exchange (which owns the New York Stock Exchange) invested $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company at $9 billion. This major investment marked a significant milestone bringing traditional finance and blockchain technology together.

The partnership goes beyond just money. ICE will distribute Polymarket’s prediction data to institutional customers worldwide, providing real-time sentiment indicators on market-relevant topics.

Regulatory Hurdles and U.S. Market Return

Polymarket’s journey back to the U.S. market involved overcoming significant regulatory challenges. The platform was banned from serving American customers in 2022 after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined the company $1.4 million for operating without proper registration.

The breakthrough came when Polymarket acquired QCEX for $112 million. QCEX held the necessary CFTC licenses to operate as both a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.

The CFTC has been working toward clearing Polymarket to operate in American markets. The platform can now legally serve U.S. customers through its newly acquired exchange license, operating under the same regulatory framework that governs other federal exchanges.

Intense Competition in Growing Market

The prediction markets sector has become increasingly competitive. Recent data shows the prediction markets sector has become increasingly competitive, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket vying for market share in the growing industry.

The prediction markets have seen substantial trading activity following the 2024 presidential election, demonstrating the sector’s continued growth beyond political betting cycles.

Other major players are entering the space. Fantasy sports giant PrizePicks announced a partnership with Polymarket, while traditional companies like DraftKings are exploring prediction market integrations. Even major exchanges like Coinbase are building prediction market applications.

The competitive landscape extends beyond just trading volume. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have announced plans to launch native tokens. Polymarket has indicated its POLY token will launch after completing its U.S. market return.

The Bigger Picture for MetaMask

This prediction markets integration represents part of MetaMask’s broader transformation from a simple wallet into a comprehensive trading platform. The company recently added perpetual futures trading, launched its rewards program, and confirmed token plans as parent company Consensys prepares for an IPO.

MetaMask has expanded beyond its Ethereum-focused roots by launching multichain accounts supporting both EVM and non-EVM networks, including Solana. The prediction markets integration positions MetaMask as a gateway to real-world event speculation, not just Web3 applications.

The company maintains its commitment to self-custody and security. All prediction market trades operate through MetaMask’s security infrastructure, allowing users to maintain full control of their assets while accessing prediction markets.

Game-Changing Moment

MetaMask’s integration with Polymarket represents a watershed moment for prediction markets adoption. By bringing these markets directly into the most widely used Ethereum wallet, the partnership could significantly accelerate mainstream adoption of blockchain-based forecasting tools.