Bitcoin (BTC) is headed for its first negative yearly performance since 2022, down approximately 7% year-to-date despite reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October.
The cryptocurrency traded at $87,400 on Thursday, well below its January 1 opening price of $93,396.
Yet Jan3 founder Samson Mow argues the past 12 months represent a "bear market" and predicts Bitcoin could enter a decade-long bull run extending into 2035.
Market analysts remain sharply divided on whether 2026 will bring recovery or further decline.
What Happened
Bitcoin set a record high of $126,210 on Oct. 6 before declining through the year's final quarter.
The cryptocurrency has not posted two consecutive yearly losses since its creation.
If Bitcoin closes 2025 below its opening price, the streak will continue.
Mow described 2025 as "the bear market" in a post on Friday.
He suggested Bitcoin may be positioning for a "decade long bull run" comparable to gold's extended rally following the launch of gold exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin analyst PlanC echoed similar sentiment.
"If you made it through 2025, you made it through the bear market," PlanC wrote.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has registered "extreme fear" for two consecutive weeks through Dec. 26, indicating widespread pessimism among market participants.
Bitcoin's decline defied earlier predictions from prominent analysts.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee suggested in October that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end.
Neither projection materialized as macroeconomic headwinds and profit-taking pressure dominated fourth-quarter trading.
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Why It Matters
Bitcoin's 2025 performance challenges assumptions about cryptocurrency's response to institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
The year saw significant developments including continued spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and growing corporate treasury adoption.
Yet price performance failed to reflect these fundamentals.
Analysts now offer conflicting outlooks for 2026.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted Bitcoin could fall to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macroeconomic research, suggested 2026 could be a "year off" for Bitcoin with prices potentially declining to $65,000.
However, Strategy CEO Phong Le maintained that Bitcoin's market fundamentals remained strong in 2025 despite declining price and sentiment.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said in July that 2026 will be an "up year" for Bitcoin.
The divergence reflects broader uncertainty about cryptocurrency's relationship with traditional market cycles.
Mow's decade-long bull run thesis assumes Bitcoin has broken from its historical four-year cycle pattern tied to halving events.
Alternative interpretations suggest either a delayed cycle peak in 2026 or the beginning of sustained institutional accumulation similar to gold's trajectory in the 2000s.
Bitcoin's failure to maintain gains despite record ETF adoption raises questions about near-term catalysts for price appreciation.
Institutional flows that drove the October rally proved insufficient to sustain momentum through year-end.
Market participants now await clearer signals about Federal Reserve policy, regulatory developments and corporate treasury strategies that could influence 2026 performance.
The cryptocurrency's ability to avoid consecutive yearly losses will be tested in the coming days as 2025 concludes.
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