Bitcoin is sending mixed but increasingly tense signals as on-chain data points to a structural shift beneath the surface, even as short-term technical levels continue to hold.

Long-term holders are no longer accumulating, new whale cohorts are under pressure, and key moving averages are flashing caution – all while price battles to stay on track for another push toward $100,000.

Key Takeaways

• Long-term holders have shifted from accumulation to selling, signaling a regime change.

• New whale wallets are near break-even around $99,000, creating strong resistance.

• Bitcoin is holding above short-term support but remains weak relative to its 50-week trend.

• The next move hinges on demand strength as older coins return to the market.

Recent data suggests the market is transitioning away from a scarcity-driven rally and toward a more demand-sensitive phase, where resistance levels and holder behavior matter far more than narrative momentum.

Long-Term Holders Flip to Distribution

On-chain metrics show that long-term holders have started selling rather than accumulating. The 30-day trend in long-term holder supply has turned negative, meaning older coins are re-entering circulation. Historically, this kind of shift does not mark an immediate market top, but it does signal a change in regime. Instead of price rising simply because coins are scarce, further upside now depends on fresh demand stepping in to absorb this supply.

Long-Term Holders Are Selling, Not Accumulating.
The 30-Day LTH Trend Has Flipped Negative, Meaning Old Coins Are Coming Back Into Circulation.

This Marks A Move From Scarcity-Driven Upside To Demand-Driven Price Action.
Not A Top Signal, But A Clear Regime Change. pic.twitter.com/QHvolbT9bB

— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) January 10, 2026

This development increases short-term fragility, as rallies become more sensitive to macro headlines, ETF flows, and technical resistance rather than long-term conviction alone.

New Whales Face Pressure Near $99K

A more concerning signal comes from the behavior of newer whale wallets. Data tracking realized price shows that new whales accumulated Bitcoin at higher levels and are now sitting near break-even around $99,000. As price approaches that zone, many of these holders may look to exit positions to avoid deeper losses.

This dynamic effectively turns the $99,000 area into a major resistance level, where sell pressure could intensify if price revisits it without strong momentum. Unlike older whales, which tend to hold through volatility, newer cohorts are historically more reactive.

Technical Structure Still Holding – For Now

Despite growing on-chain caution, Bitcoin’s short-term technical picture remains constructive. According to Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin is holding above its 21-day moving average and successfully defending a former resistance zone as support.

So far, so good.$BTC holds above the 21-Day MA and needs to survive the weekend.

If that's the case, and Monday is a green opener, we're in for a run towards $100k.#Bitcoin is also holding the previous resistance point for support, while #Altcoins slowly, very slowly, start… pic.twitter.com/ggI6PbA5ja

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 10, 2026

He notes that if the market can maintain these levels through the weekend and open next week with strength, another attempt toward $100,000 remains possible.

However, a broader technical concern lingers. Bitcoin has now traded below its 50-week simple moving average for nine consecutive weeks, a pattern that has historically increased the risk of sharper corrective moves in past cycles. This does not guarantee a downturn, but it raises the stakes for bulls in the coming sessions.

Market at an Inflection Point

Taken together, the signals suggest Bitcoin is at a critical junction. Long-term holders are distributing, new whales are under pressure near key levels, and medium-term trend indicators remain fragile. At the same time, price structure has not yet broken down, leaving room for volatility in both directions.

Whether Bitcoin resumes its climb or faces a deeper pullback will likely depend on how the market reacts near the $99,000-$100,000 zone and whether demand can convincingly absorb the supply now coming back into circulation.