Bitcoin may be approaching a moment that has only appeared once before in its trading history. According to new analysis shared by Alphractal, the asset’s one-year percentage change is hovering just below zero, a zone that has historically defined bear markets.
What makes the current setup unusual is how closely it resembles conditions seen in mid-2020, shortly before a powerful bull run began.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s one-year performance is hovering near a level that has historically marked major market turning points.
A modest price move could determine whether Bitcoin follows a 2020-style recovery or remains in consolidation.
The coming sessions may define Bitcoin’s broader trend rather than just short-term price action.
In most past cycles, when Bitcoin’s yearly performance dipped into negative territory, the market remained under pressure for an extended period. The main exception came in July 2020, when the metric briefly turned negative before quickly reversing higher. That shift marked the transition from a quiet accumulation phase into a strong bullish trend that unfolded over the following months.
Something rare is happening with Bitcoin!
The 1-year percentage change, when negative, has historically been associated with bear markets, with the exception of July 2020, when it briefly turned negative and was soon followed by a strong bull market.
Now, the current setup… pic.twitter.com/3YdmKj0C7L
— Alphractal (@Alphractal) January 10, 2026
A 5% Move That Could Change the Narrative
At present, Bitcoin is roughly one modest rally away from repeating that rare historical pattern. Analysts estimate that a gain of around 4–5% would be enough to push the one-year change back into positive territory. If that happens, it would mark only the second time in Bitcoin’s history that this metric flipped green without first experiencing a deeper bear-market drawdown.
If Bitcoin fails to make that move, however, the annual performance will stay negative. In previous cycles, that outcome has typically aligned with prolonged consolidation or further downside before a more durable recovery could begin. In other words, this narrow price range may decide whether the market is transitioning into a new phase or simply pausing within a broader corrective structure.
Why the One-Year Change Matters
The one-year percentage change strips away short-term noise and focuses on Bitcoin’s broader trend. When it is negative, it signals that buyers over the past year are, on average, underwater, which tends to suppress risk appetite. When it turns positive, sentiment often improves as momentum traders and longer-term investors regain confidence.
The 2020 comparison is particularly important because that period followed months of uncertainty and low volatility, similar to recent conditions. Back then, once the metric turned positive, capital flows accelerated and Bitcoin entered a sustained uptrend rather than a short-lived bounce.
What This Could Mean for the Market
The current setup suggests the market is at a decision point rather than in a clearly defined bull or bear phase. A clean move higher could reinforce the idea that Bitcoin is exiting a long consolidation and setting the foundation for a new trend. Failure to do so would imply that the market still needs more time to absorb selling pressure and reset expectations.
For traders and investors, this makes the coming sessions especially important. Small percentage moves may carry outsized signaling power, not because they guarantee a rally or a drop, but because they help clarify which historical path Bitcoin is following.
