Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are bracing for potential volatility as traders await the delayed January US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report now scheduled for release this week. BTC hovers near $68K, struggling to establish a solid floor after a correction triggered by evolving macroeconomic expectations.
FED RATE CUTS STILL LIKELY—BUT NO RUSH: UBS
Easing U.S. inflation should keep the Federal Reserve on track for rate cuts despite strong jobs data, UBS Global Wealth Management says. It expects two 25-basis-point cuts in June and September, supporting equities, bonds, and gold.…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 12, 2026
Market Eyes US Inflation Data and Fed Path
The postponed BLS inflation print has gained outsized importance following January’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, 130,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment falling to 4.3%, which pushed back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts and strengthened the “higher-for-longer” interest-rate outlook. Traders are evaluating whether the CPI will support the Fed’s 2% target or confirm persistent inflationary pressures.
Adding another layer of complexity, President Trump’s nomination of pro-Bitcoin advocate Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair (effective post-May) introduces possible long-term shifts in monetary policy that could influence risk-asset sentiment and Bitcoin’s trajectory in the months ahead.
NEW: Job growth SURGED in January, adding 130,000 total non-farm jobs and 172,000 private sector jobs — shattering expectations once again.
The unemployment rate fell. Wages grew. Federal employment is now at its lowest level since 1966.
This is the Trump Economy ??? pic.twitter.com/JxyUYGE1c9
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) February 11, 2026
Potential Market Scenarios – Bitcoin Price Towards $60K?
Target Rate Probabilities for 18 Mar 2026 Fed Meeting Source: FedWatch
Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey Group, warned that “good news” for the economy, such as robust growth or sticky prices, is currently treating markets to “bad news” by delaying liquidity injections.
While some analysts argue that the crypto winter that began in January 2025 presents signs of recovery, the immediate price action remains tethered to this week’s critical data release.
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