Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $70,000 on Saturday after touching lows near $61,000 earlier this month, but the rebound has done little to ease broader bearish sentiment.
The cryptocurrency has fallen roughly 45% since its all-time high of $126,210 on Oct. 6, and CoinMarketCap's Fear & Greed Index remains at 11 - deep in "Extreme Fear" territory.
The decline is Bitcoin's steepest drawdown since 2022, when prices fell from $69,000 to below $16,000.
What's Driving Selling Pressure
On-chain data shows large holders continuing to move Bitcoin onto exchanges. Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that wallets linked to Garrett Jin, the former BitForex CEO, deposited 5,000 BTC worth roughly $349 million into Binance this week.
Jin also withdrew 53.12 million USDT from the exchange, consistent with a completed sale. He reportedly still holds more than 30,000 BTC.
Jin is a controversial figure. In October 2025, wallets linked to him opened large short positions roughly 30 minutes before Donald Trump announced a proposed 100% tariff on China - a move that triggered over $19 billion in crypto liquidations.
Jin denied any connection to the Trump family and said the wallets belonged to a client. On-chain investigator ZachXBT also expressed doubt that Jin was the whale behind the trades.
Separately, Whale Alert tracked 1,651 BTC worth approximately $114 million moving from an unknown wallet to Binance, adding to exchange inflow pressure.
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What Exchange Flows Show
Bitcoin exchange netflows turned sharply negative in early February.
Net inflows hit roughly $450 million on Feb. 3, coinciding with BTC dropping toward $65,000 by Feb. 6.
Outflows above $250 million then appeared on Feb. 6-7 as prices stabilized. Since Feb. 8, flows have been smaller and more balanced, suggesting acute selling pressure may have eased.
Bear Market Context
Bitcoin peaked at $126,210 on Oct. 6, 2025 and is now four months into its decline. Previous bear markets have varied significantly in duration and depth.
The 2021-2022 cycle saw a 77% peak-to-trough decline over roughly 12 months. The 2017-2018 cycle fell 84% over 13 months. The current 45% drawdown is severe but not yet historically extreme by those standards.
Some analysts have speculated about much deeper bottoms, with figures as low as $32,000 to $49,000 circulating on social media.
Those estimates rely on pattern-matching with previous cycles - a method with no predictive reliability in a market where institutional participation, ETF flows, and macroeconomic conditions have changed fundamentally since 2022.
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