Standard Chartered has lowered its year-end 2026 Bitcoin forecast to $100,000, marking the second downgrade in just three months.
Key Takeaways
Standard Chartered cut its 2026 Bitcoin target to $100,000 again.
Bank warns BTC could drop toward $50,000 in a capitulation phase.
ETF outflows and weaker corporate buying are key concerns.
Ethereum target lowered to $4,000; $500,000 BTC call delayed to 2030.
The bank had previously projected $150,000 and, before that, an ambitious $300,000 target for the same period.
In a February 12 note, Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, outlined a more cautious path ahead for crypto markets, pointing to weakening momentum and growing macro pressure.
Capitulation Risk and ETF Pressure
According to the bank, Bitcoin could face what it describes as a “final capitulation period” in the coming months. In that scenario, BTC may slide toward $50,000 – or slightly below – before establishing a durable bottom.
A key concern is persistent ETF outflows. Since peaking in October 2025, Bitcoin ETF holdings have reportedly dropped by nearly 100,000 coins. With the average ETF entry price near $90,000, many investors are currently underwater. That dynamic increases the likelihood of selling pressure rather than aggressive dip-buying.
The bank also argues that the phase of strong corporate accumulation – previously led by firms such as MicroStrategy – has largely run its course. If corporate demand cools, future upside may depend almost entirely on renewed ETF inflows.
Macro Headwinds Add to Uncertainty
Standard Chartered cites unsupportive U.S. economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance as additional drags on digital assets. With rate cuts still uncertain and liquidity conditions tight, the bank sees limited catalysts in the near term.
Meaningful relief, it suggests, may not emerge until a shift in Fed leadership or policy direction, potentially around mid-year.
Ethereum Target Also Slashed
The bank also revised its Ethereum outlook. The year-end 2026 forecast for ETH has been cut to $4,000 from a previous $7,500 projection. In the short term, Ethereum could fall toward $1,400 before stabilizing, according to the note.
Despite the downward revisions, Standard Chartered maintains a constructive long-term view. However, its previously outlined $500,000 Bitcoin target has now been pushed back from 2028 to 2030, signaling a slower trajectory for the broader crypto cycle.
How Other Institutions See 2026
While Standard Chartered has turned more cautious, other major firms remain more optimistic.
Bernstein continues to project Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026. Maple Finance sees a potential move toward $175,000. Meanwhile, Fundstrat, led by Tom Lee, has outlined a range between $200,000 and $250,000.
On the more cautious end, some analysts estimate a potential floor around $75,000.
The widening gap in projections highlights just how uncertain the road to 2026 remains. For now, the debate centers on whether current weakness marks the final shakeout before recovery – or the start of a longer consolidation phase for digital assets.
