Bitcoin (BTC) climbed past $79,000 this week for the first time since January, and VanEck analysts say two on-chain signals now point to further upside.

VanEck ChainCheck Findings

The mid-April Bitcoin ChainCheck report dropped Friday, with analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush flagging a familiar contrarian setup, according to Stocktwits.

Bitcoin's seven-day funding rate sank to roughly -1.8%, the lowest reading since 2023. The hash rate, meanwhile, has slipped to the 16th percentile over 30 days, with three sustained drawdown episodes recorded since December.

The most recent decline ended Apr. 15 after a 6.7% peak drop. Bitcoin Magazine reported that six of the past seven such episodes left Bitcoin higher 90 days later, with a median gain of 37.7%.

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Sigel Bull Case

Negative funding has historically delivered average 30-day returns of 11.5% since 2020, well above the 4.5% baseline. Drops below -5% pushed 30-day returns to 19.4%.

Volatility cooled from 56% to 41% as US-Iran tensions eased, suggesting cautious positioning rather than panic.

Bitcoin gained more than 13% across April, putting it on pace for its best monthly showing in roughly a year. The price held above $77,000 Saturday after several weeks of choppy trading near the lower $70,000s.

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