Three data points converged on Cardano this week, and the most important one is not the buy signal.
Key Takeaways
1M+ ADA wallets hold 25.09B tokens: all-time high, 67.47% of supply.
Supply concentration highest since July 2020.
SuperTrend flipped to buy on daily chart.
Primary target $0.33, secondary $0.42, invalidation $0.25.
SMA200 at $0.3441 sits above the $0.33 primary target and is the key level to clear.
What the accumulation data is measuring
Santiment’s on-chain data shows wallets holding at least 1 million ADA now collectively hold 25.09 billion tokens, an all-time high. That figure represents 67.47% of ADA’s current circulating supply, the highest concentration among this wallet tier since July 2020. The accumulation trend has been building since December 2023, meaning large holders have been consistently adding to their positions across a period during which ADA’s market cap fell 71%.
Large holders accumulating 67.47% of ADA’s circulating supply during a 71% market cap decline is not a timing signal: it is a structural condition that describes who owns the asset at the bottom of a cycle, and the last time supply concentration reached this level was July 2020, before the rally that took Cardano to $3.10. That parallel does not predict a repeat, but it describes the ownership structure that tends to precede sustained recoveries: a compressed float held predominantly by holders who bought at lower prices and have demonstrated tolerance for extended drawdowns.
The accumulation data does not tell you when price moves. It tells you that the supply available for panic selling has been progressively removed from circulation by holders who have not sold through a 71% decline.
What the SuperTrend signal adds and where it points
Crypto analyst Ali Charts has been tracking Cardano’s SuperTrend indicator since September 25, 2025, when it issued a sell signal that preceded a 73% price decline. The indicator has now flipped to a buy signal on the daily chart, which Ali Charts interprets as the exhaustion phase ending and a trend reversal beginning.
Cardano $ADA could be about to kickstart a new bull rally!
The SuperTrend indicator has been my most accurate tool for anticipating Cardano’s long-term shifts. I’ve been tracking it closely since September 25, 2025, when it flashed a sell signal that perfectly timed the start of… pic.twitter.com/QMV1kaN0Aq
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 14, 2026
His price targets follow from the signal: a primary target at the $0.33 resistance zone, and a secondary target at $0.42 if momentum sustains. His invalidation is a loss of $0.25 support, which he describes as the condition that delays the recovery.
Ali Charts’ primary target of $0.33 sits 4.3% below the SMA200 at $0.3441, which means reaching the first target does not clear the most significant moving average overhead: it approaches it, and the SMA200 is where the daily trend is still pointing down. A rally to $0.33 would represent a 24.9% gain from current price and would be a meaningful recovery, but it would leave ADA below the level where the daily moving average structure returns to neutral. The secondary target of $0.42 clears the SMA200 by approximately $0.076 and would represent the first sustained close above it since the decline began.
What the daily price chart confirms and complicates
The ADA/USDT daily chart shows ADA at $0.2642, down 0.23% on the session. The MA structure is partially recovered: SMA50 at $0.2527 and SMA100 at $0.2616 are both below price, meaning ADA has reclaimed both shorter-term averages. The SMA200 at $0.3441 remains $0.0799 above current price, approximately 30% overhead, and is still declining.
Price sits above the SMA100 by $0.0026, the thinnest of the three margins. A daily close below $0.2616 would put price back under the SMA100, undoing the near-term MA reclaim and weakening the technical case for the SuperTrend signal.
The $0.2800 level, midway between current price and the $0.33 primary target, is the first meaningful test of whether the recovery has genuine momentum behind it: reaching it without a reversal would indicate the SuperTrend signal is producing follow-through rather than a short-term bounce.
RSI on the daily reads 52.99 against a signal of 58.07, a spread of 5.08 points with the signal above RSI. The RSI has recovered from the lows of the February correction but the signal line sitting above it indicates momentum has softened after the recent push. The daily is not overbought and not oversold: it is in a position where direction depends on whether price can sustain closes above the current MA structure.
The $0.25 invalidation level Ali Charts identifies as the floor of his bullish case is $0.0142 below current price, meaning the distance between a confirmed recovery and a delayed one is narrower than the daily candle range on several days this month. The invalidation is not theoretical: it is close enough that a single strong daily candle to the downside could test it.
Why the accumulation structure matters more than the signal’s near-term targets
The SuperTrend buy signal and the $0.33 primary target describe what could happen in the next few weeks. The supply concentration reaching a July 2020 equivalent describes what has already happened over eighteen months: the most structurally significant data point in this analysis is not the signal, it is that 67.47% of ADA’s circulating supply is now held by wallets that have absorbed a 71% market cap decline without selling. That ownership structure is the foundation the buy signal is building on, and it is why the near-term targets matter less than whether the $0.25 floor holds.
A daily close above $0.2800, extending the MA reclaim with RSI crossing back above its signal line at 58.07, would confirm the SuperTrend buy signal is producing sustained follow-through and the path toward the $0.33 primary target is open.
A daily close below $0.2527, losing the SMA50, with RSI falling back below 45, would indicate the SuperTrend signal has not produced follow-through and the recovery is stalling, returning price to the range that preceded the recent push and putting the $0.25 invalidation level within a session’s reach.
