OpenAI confidentially filed for an initial public offering on Monday, valuing the ChatGPT maker at $852 billion as it joined Anthropic and SpaceX in racing toward Wall Street.
Key Points:
- OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 to U.S. regulators on Monday, its first formal step toward a public listing.
- The filing sets up a three-way sprint with Anthropic and SpaceX, the latter due to begin trading Friday.
- Analysts are divided over whether the $852 billion valuation rests on fundamentals or hype.
OpenAI Files Its Confidential S-1
OpenAI announced the move itself, saying it expected the paperwork to leak and choosing to disclose first. The company filed a draft registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission, a confidential route that lets regulators review its finances privately before any public disclosure.
It cautioned that a debut "may be a while," since some plans are easier to pursue as a private firm. The move follows Anthropic's own confidential submission to the SEC a week earlier. SpaceX, which merged with Elon Musk's xAI in February at a $1.25 trillion value, begins trading Friday in what could rank as the largest IPO ever.
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Ives Says The IPO Floodgates Are Open
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote that OpenAI's filing threw the IPO market's floodgates "officially open" after years of a dormant market. He said the two labs were each racing to market to beat the other to the tens of billions in fresh capital they both need.
That contest leaves Sam Altman pressed to show growth keeps accelerating against rivals gaining ground in enterprise AI. Michael Fertik of Verdict Capital cheered the wave, saying he hopes strong debuts open the door to a torrent of liquidity. Perplexity chief Aravind Srinivas kept his own listing pegged to 2028, warning the offerings could ripple across the industry if they stumble.
Critics Question OpenAI's Trillion-Dollar Bet
Skeptics see it differently. Dan Niles said he rates Anthropic higher after it reached profitability and ramped revenue fast, while Gregory Allen of Decision Tree Research likened the near trillion-dollar valuations to "an annuity that kicks out $45 billion a year."
EMARKETER analyst Nate Elliott called the timing precarious, predicting Google could overtake ChatGPT among U.S. users by early 2027 even after OpenAI raised nearly $200 billion privately. AI researcher Gary Marcus was blunter, suggesting only the "stragglers" who cannot see it would buy at list price. OpenAI's own futurist Joshua Achiam recast the rivalry as a clash between two very different visions for humanity's future.
OpenAI closed a $122 billion round in March that lifted its valuation to $852 billion and brought in more than $20 billion in recurring annual revenue last year, even as it projects a $14 billion loss in 2026. The filing capped a frantic stretch in which Anthropic, valued at $965 billion, SpaceX and now OpenAI all moved toward public markets within weeks.
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