The Ethereum (ETH) price has rebounded sharply from its crash lows near $3,430, climbing to around $4,130 at press time — a gain of roughly 20%. While this looks like a strong recovery, the price chart and on-chain data suggest that the move may not be straightforward.
Ethereum could continue to rise, but a temporary pullback might follow before the next leg higher takes shape.
Whales Pick Up ETH, But Cautious Cohorts Keep the Market Split
Ethereum’s current rebound appears to be driven by large wallets rather than smaller holders. Data from Santiment shows that whale wallets have increased their holdings from 100.28 million to 100.36 million ETH since October 11.
That’s about 80,000 ETH, worth roughly $330 million at today’s Ethereum (ETH) prices. The slow yet steady rise in whale holdings signals quiet accumulation after the crash, suggesting confidence among long-term players.
Ethereum Whales Slowly Adding: Santiment
However, some key holder groups have not shown the same conviction. According to Glassnode’s HODL Waves, which categorize coins by how long they’ve been held, two key cohorts have reduced their exposure. The 1-week to 1-month cohort, typically made up of short-term traders who react quickly to volatility, has trimmed its share from 8.84% to 8.37%.
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Meanwhile, the 1-year to 2-year cohort, often mid-to-long-term holders who help stabilize prices during uncertain phases, has declined from 7.16% to 7.03%, post-crash.
Ethereum Holders Still Cautious: Glassnode
These are the cohorts that usually shape short-term momentum and sustain longer recoveries. Their current caution explains why Ethereum’s bounce, while promising, still looks uneven. Until these traders and holders re-enter the market, the recovery may remain largely whale-driven. That would leave the Ethereum price action more volatile around resistance zones.
Cup Pattern Points to Ethereum Price Rise, But a Pullback Could Come Next
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum is forming a cup pattern, often seen as a bullish reversal signal. The structure shows price curving upward from around $3,640 toward the $4,130–$4,390 range, with the formation looking steady on both sides. The long lower wick from the October 11 crash is excluded from the pattern as it was a quick anomaly that didn’t affect the broader structure.
Volume trends validate this formation. Heavy red candles appeared on the left side during the decline. Then, the volume flattened at the base as the market stabilized. And finally, green bars started rising on the right side as buying returned.
Based on this setup, the Ethereum price could climb to around $4,390, completing the cup and aligning both rims at a similar level. Once that level is reached, an ETH price pullback could follow as the handle begins to form.
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView
The handle phase could bring ETH down to $4,070, or possibly $3,950, without invalidating the structure. However, a close below $3,950 would break the pattern and signal weakness. If the handle forms cleanly and momentum holds, a breakout above $4,390 could trigger the next leg up. That would target $4,550 and $4,750 in the short term.
