Bitcoin is limping into Christmas week with no Santa rally in sight.
And Gabriel Selby, head of research at CF Benchmark, says it’s unlikely that the price will recover from its current downtrend until the US Federal Reserve gets a better grip on the economy.
With the record US government shutdown delaying inflation data, the central bank will tread lightly and that means buyers are unlikely to tap into the crypto and push up the price, Selby wrote in an investor note shared with DL News.
“Until we get several months of clean, uninterrupted inflation data, the Fed’s path remains murky,” Selby said. “And in that environment of uncertainty, Bitcoin — despite its recent institutional adoption narrative — continues to behave like the risk asset it is, struggling to find sustained buying conviction.”
Until the murky waters of the economy grows clearer, sellers remain “firmly in control” as the top crypto struggles near $89,000, 30% below its October all-time high, Selby said.
Aborted victory lap
The comments come at the tail end of a year that should’ve seen Bitcoin buyers and the crypto industry take a victory lap.
Under US President Donald Trump, the crypto industry has been given both backing from the White House and regulatory clarity. Traditional financial firms have, as a result, bought into digital assets like never before.
However, Trump has also contributed to the market slump with his trade war against several of the US’ closest trading partners and by dragging out the government shutdown, which in turn delayed key inflation data from being published and made it harder for the Fed to justify bigger interest rate cuts.
Lower interest rates usually incentivise investors to buy riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, which push the price up higher.
As a result, people are dumping their crypto positions. Investors pulled out almost $500 million from their spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund positions last week, according to DefiLlama data.
Investors are now watching the macro calendar to finish off a turbulent 2025.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, told investors in a blog that the holiday-shortened week offers several signals that could shape sentiment into year-end and early 2026.
GDP update
The first test is fresh US economic growth figures due Tuesday.
Yardeni said he expects a roughly 3.5% annualised expansion in third-quarter GDP, following a strong 3.8% pace in the second quarter.
A resilient growth print means the economy remains robust, but could also complicate expectations for more rate cuts from the Fed.
For Bitcoin, strong economic growth could reinforce the current stalemate rather than spark a breakout.
Consumer confidence
The Conference Board’s December consumer confidence report is closely watched for early signals from the labour market, and new data is expected on Tuesday.
Yardeni anticipates the survey to show mixed conditions, reflecting lingering uncertainty among households.
Weak confidence could revive hopes of more rate cuts, while resilience would keep rate expectations restrained.
Jobless claims
Weekly unemployment claims remain one of the few reliable indicators cutting through the data fog.
Yardeni said claims should confirm layoffs remain low, pointing to a labour market that is cooling only gradually.
That stability supports risk assets over the medium term, but in the short run it leaves Bitcoin stuck in limbo.
“Clearly, the economic fog caused by the government shutdown is following the markets into the new year,” Yardeni said.
Crypto market movers
Bitcoin up 0.9% over the past 24 hours, trading at $89,600.
Ethereum is up 1.1% over the past 24 hours trading at $3,033.
