A sharp decline in Bitcoin’s network hashrate in mid-December has reignited debate over the health of the mining sector and its potential implications for the broader crypto market. According to data analyzed by asset manager VanEck, the global Bitcoin hashrate fell by approximately 4% in the 30 days leading up to December 15.
VanEck: Bitcoin Hashrate Drop May Signal Stronger Returns Ahead
Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4% over the past month, a move that @vaneck_us analysts say has historically acted as a bullish contrarian signal for $BTC prices, according to @Cointelegraph.
VanEck noted that miner… pic.twitter.com/EvKO9iqxmd
— ME (@MetaEraHK) December 23, 2025
VanEck analysts interpret this drop as a sign of growing miner capitulation, a phenomenon that has historically coincided with favorable return periods for Bitcoin. Miner capitulation typically occurs when less efficient operators shut down due to rising costs or falling profitability.
Hashrate Weakness Has Historically Been a Bullish Signal
VanEck’s research suggests that sustained weakness in the Bitcoin hashrate has often served as a contrarian bullish indicator. Since 2014, Bitcoin has delivered positive returns within 90 days in 65% of cases when the hashrate declined in the prior month. By comparison, when the hashrate increased, positive returns occurred in 54% of cases.
The trend becomes even more pronounced over longer periods. When the hashrate showed a negative trend over 90 days, Bitcoin posted positive returns over the following 180 days in 77% of cases, with an average gain of around 72%. This significantly outperformed periods of rising hashrate, which saw positive outcomes only 61% of the time.
Bitcoin Price and Mining Profitability
A market stabilization or price recovery could provide meaningful relief for miners. Rising Bitcoin prices generally improve mining profitability and may incentivize operators to bring previously idled machines back online.
As of the latest data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $87,424, nearly 31% below its early October all-time high.
Rising Costs Continue to Pressure Mining Firms
Despite the potential bullish signal, economic conditions for miners remain challenging. VanEck highlights a significant decline in the profitability of widely used mining hardware.
The breakeven electricity price for operating a Bitmain S19 XP (2022 model) has dropped by roughly 36% since December 2024, falling to about $0.077 per kilowatt-hour. This underscores the financial strain facing many miners amid high energy costs and reduced revenues.
Analysts also attribute much of the recent hashrate decline to the shutdown of approximately 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity in China. Some of this energy is expected to be redirected to artificial intelligence data centers, a shift that could eventually impact up to 10% of Bitcoin’s total hashrate.
Government Support Remains a Key Variable
Not all governments are retreating from Bitcoin mining. VanEck estimates that up to 13 countries actively support or tolerate Bitcoin mining activities, including Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, the United Arab Emirates, and Japan.
This level of state involvement could further reshape the geographic distribution of mining operations and enhance the long-term resilience of the Bitcoin network.
Overall, the latest developments highlight how closely technical metrics, energy policy, and market cycles are intertwined within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
